Detroit Pistons at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Jalen DurenPoints18
- Daniss JenkinsAssists7
- Jalen DurenRebounds9
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints31
- Jalen SuggsAssists12
- Jalen SuggsRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–123
- Q48.7shot clock turnover107–123
- Q432.7shot clock turnover107–123
- Q432.7Magic offensive team rebound107–123
- Q433.4Noah Penda misses 25-foot three point jumper107–123
- Q434.6Magic offensive team rebound107–123
- Q434.6Paul Reed blocks Alex Morales 's 3-foot driving layup107–123
- Q455.2Colin Castleton defensive rebound107–123
- Q458.4Chaz Lanier misses 24-foot three point jumper107–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:33Desmond Bane makes 27-foot three point jumper (Moritz Wagner assists)DET 31 – 33 ORL · ORL 46% → 53% +7ORL 46% → 53%+7 pts
- Q210:17Desmond Bane makes 23-foot running jump shot (Jamal Cain assists)DET 31 – 36 ORL · ORL 53% → 61% +7ORL 53% → 61%+7 pts
- Q27:30Marcus Sasser makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ausar Thompson assists)DET 39 – 42 ORL · DET 36% → 44% +7DET 36% → 44%+7 pts
- Q44:07Daniss Jenkins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ausar Thompson assists)DET 105 – 109 ORL · DET 11% → 24% +13DET 11% → 24%+13 pts
- Q43:26Jalen Suggs makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tristan da Silva assists)DET 105 – 114 ORL · ORL 88% → 96% +8ORL 88% → 96%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- DET -1.5
- ML DET -118 / ORL -102
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -8.5
- DET 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- +27.4 pts
- DET: Elo 79.2%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- DET -107
- ORL +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 112.0 – 110.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1657 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +33 | −4 | DET: Missing Tobias Harris −5 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | ORL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +232 Elo | DET 79.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 66.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 67.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.5 | Points scored | 115.415th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.4 | Points allowed | 115.315th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+8.1 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.1 | Offense rating | 112.419th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.2 | Defense rating | 112.314th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.4 | Pace | 101.812th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3026–12 | Road vs home | 23–1513th of 30 |
| 29th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 150215th of 30 |
| 4th of 301657 | Elo rating | 147819th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+33 Elo- Tobias Harris left knee−5 Elo
Magic
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 42–36 | 35–43 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 30–34 | 20–28 |
| Underdog | 12–2 | 15–15 |
| Overs–unders | 36–42 | 42–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–7 ORL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Mar 1DET 106 @ ORL 92Picked DET 64%Hit
- Nov 28ORL 112 @ DET 109Picked DET 61%Miss
- Oct 29ORL 116 @ DET 135Picked ORL 54%Miss
- Jan 25DET 113 @ ORL 121Picked ORL 61%Hit
- Jan 1ORL 96 @ DET 105Picked DET 55%Hit
- Nov 23DET 100 @ ORL 111Picked ORL 78%Hit
- Mar 3DET 91 @ ORL 113Picked ORL 75%Hit
- Feb 24ORL 112 @ DET 109Picked ORL 67%Hit