Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints19
- Reed SheppardAssists8
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds12
Lakers- Luke KennardPoints27
- LeBron JamesAssists13
- Deandre AytonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–107
- Q415.8Josh Okogie enters the game for Alperen Sengun98–107
- Q415.8Jake LaRavia enters the game for Deandre Ayton98–107
- Q415.8Lakers Full timeout98–107
- Q415.8Tari Eason makes running layup (Reed Sheppard assists)98–107
- Q418.4Luke Kennard bad pass
turnover (Tari Eason steals)96–107
- Q432.9Deandre Ayton defensive rebound96–107
- Q436.6Reed Sheppard misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot96–107
- Q442.1LeBron James makes layup (Luke Kennard assists)96–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:41Reed Sheppard makes 27-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 51 – 50 LAL · HOU 48% → 57% +9HOU 48% → 57%+9 pts
- Q38:59Jabari Smith Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Okogie assists)HOU 54 – 54 LAL · HOU 44% → 53% +9HOU 44% → 53%+9 pts
- Q38:24Rui Hachimura makes 24-foot three point jumper (Luke Kennard assists)HOU 54 – 57 LAL · LAL 47% → 56% +10LAL 47% → 56%+10 pts
- Q36:54Luke Kennard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Marcus Smart assists)HOU 56 – 60 LAL · LAL 50% → 60% +10LAL 50% → 60%+10 pts
- Q411:20Reed Sheppard makes 28-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 69 – 75 LAL · HOU 18% → 28% +10HOU 18% → 28%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -2.5
- ML HOU -135 / LAL +114
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -0.5
- HOU 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 51.1%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -123
- LAL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 105.5 – 103.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 208.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1611 | 1621 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −35 | −88 | HOU: Missing Kevin Durant −48 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +7 Elo | HOU 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 56.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30115.2 | Points scored | 116.311th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.0 | Points allowed | 114.611th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.2 | Margin | +1.814th of 30 |
| 9th of 30116.0 | Offense rating | 116.28th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 114.419th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.1 | Pace | 99.922nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–1 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 10th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 28–137th of 30 |
| 26th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149422nd of 30 |
| 9th of 301611 | Elo rating | 16218th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−35 Elo- Kevin Durant right knee contusion−48 Elo
Lakers
−88 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–46 | 46–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 30–42 | 31–18 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 15–18 |
| Overs–unders | 39–43 | 41–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 4–6 LAL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Mar 18LAL 124 @ HOU 116Picked HOU 54%Miss
- Mar 16LAL 100 @ HOU 92Picked LAL 52%Hit
- Dec 25HOU 119 @ LAL 96Picked HOU 53%Hit
- Apr 11HOU 109 @ LAL 140Picked LAL 88%Hit
- Mar 31HOU 98 @ LAL 104Picked LAL 63%Hit
- Jan 5LAL 115 @ HOU 119Picked HOU 62%Hit
- Jan 29LAL 119 @ HOU 135Picked LAL 54%Miss
- Dec 2HOU 97 @ LAL 107Picked LAL 53%Hit