Los Angeles Lakers at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints29
- Marcus SmartAssists10
- LeBron JamesRebounds13
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints33
- Reed SheppardAssists7
- Alperen SengunRebounds16
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game112–108
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime112–108
- OT0.7Rui Hachimura defensive rebound112–108
- OT2.0Tari Eason misses 26-foot turnaround jump shot112–108
- OT3.9Jarred Vanderbilt enters the game for Deandre Ayton112–108
- OT3.9Rockets Full timeout112–108
- OT6.8LeBron James bad pass
turnover (Reed Sheppard steals)112–108
- OT7.4Lakers Full timeout112–108
- OT9.4Lakers Full timeout112–108
- OT9.4Lakers defensive team rebound112–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:59Reed Sheppard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)LAL 91 – 92 HOU · HOU 43% → 62% +19HOU 43% → 62%+19 pts
- Q413.6LeBron James makes 24-foot running jump shot (Luke Kennard assists)LAL 101 – 101 HOU · LAL 1% → 49% +48LAL 1% → 49%+48 pts
- OT4:09Marcus Smart makes 22-foot three point jumper (Rui Hachimura assists)LAL 104 – 101 HOU · LAL 44% → 65% +21LAL 44% → 65%+21 pts
- OT2:35Rui Hachimura makes driving layup (LeBron James assists)LAL 107 – 103 HOU · LAL 63% → 78% +15LAL 63% → 78%+15 pts
- OT2:09Alperen Sengun makes 11-foot two point shotLAL 107 – 105 HOU · HOU 19% → 35% +16HOU 19% → 35%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -7.5
- ML LAL +205 / HOU -250
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -0.5
- HOU 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −16.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 51.9%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- HOU -218
- LAL +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 99.0 – 106.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 205.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1640 | 1592 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −68 | −43 | LAL: Missing Austin Reaves −36 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · HOU: Missing Kevin Durant −49 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | −24 | LAL crossed 2 time zones and HOU crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +13 Elo | HOU 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 61.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 115.218th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.6 | Points allowed | 110.04th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.8 | Margin | +5.26th of 30 |
| 8th of 30116.2 | Offense rating | 116.09th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 110.85th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.9 | Pace | 98.129th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 9–12nd of 30 |
| 6th of 3025–16 | Road vs home | 30–115th of 30 |
| 24th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149325th of 30 |
| 5th of 301640 | Elo rating | 159211th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−68 Elo- Austin Reaves left oblique−36 Elo
Rockets
−43 Elo- Kevin Durant left ankle sprain−49 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 48–36 | 36–48 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 31–18 | 30–44 |
| Underdog | 17–18 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 41–43 | 39–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 8–4 HOU in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.
- Apr 21HOU 94 @ LAL 101PlayoffsPicked HOU 67%Miss
- Apr 18HOU 98 @ LAL 107PlayoffsPicked HOU 55%Miss
- Mar 18LAL 124 @ HOU 116Picked HOU 54%Miss
- Mar 16LAL 100 @ HOU 92Picked LAL 52%Hit
- Dec 25HOU 119 @ LAL 96Picked HOU 53%Hit
- Apr 11HOU 109 @ LAL 140Picked LAL 88%Hit
- Mar 31HOU 98 @ LAL 104Picked LAL 63%Hit
- Jan 5LAL 115 @ HOU 119Picked HOU 62%Hit