Oklahoma City Thunder at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints31
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds12
Suns- Devin BookerPoints24
- Devin BookerAssists6
- Oso IghodaroRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–122
- Q40.0Suns offensive team rebound131–122
- Q40.0Ryan Dunn misses 32-foot three point pullup jump shot131–122
- Q43.3Isaiah Joe enters the game for Luguentz Dort131–122
- Q43.3shot clock turnover131–122
- Q427.4Jamaree Bouyea makes driving layup131–122
- Q438.9Khaman Maluach defensive rebound131–120
- Q439.8Luguentz Dort misses free throw 2 of 2131–120
- Q439.8Kenrich Williams enters the game for Cason Wallace131–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:58Grayson Allen makes 27-foot three point jumperOKC 46 – 50 PHX · PHX 26% → 33% +7PHX 26% → 33%+7 pts
- Q25:33Jalen Green makes 26-foot three point jumper (Grayson Allen assists)OKC 48 – 55 PHX · PHX 34% → 41% +8PHX 34% → 41%+8 pts
- Q25:18Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot three pointerOKC 51 – 55 PHX · OKC 58% → 66% +8OKC 58% → 66%+8 pts
- Q24:35Collin Gillespie makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)OKC 53 – 58 PHX · PHX 30% → 37% +7PHX 30% → 37%+7 pts
- Q24:22Ajay Mitchell makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotOKC 56 – 58 PHX · OKC 63% → 70% +7OKC 63% → 70%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -11.5
- ML OKC -535 / PHX +400
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -7.5
- OKC 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- OKC: Elo 77.4%, market 80.8%
- Fair odds
- OKC -421
- PHX +421 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 113.5 – 102.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1715 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +38 | −8 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +213 Elo | OKC 77.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 81.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 81.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 80.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.0 | Points scored | 112.626th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.9 | Points allowed | 111.16th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.1 | Margin | +1.515th of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.8 | Offense rating | 113.116th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.8 | Defense rating | 111.69th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.9 | Pace | 99.124th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–517th of 30 |
| 1st of 3030–10 | Road vs home | 25–1613th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15092nd of 30 |
| 1st of 301715 | Elo rating | 151217th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–44 | 48–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 38–42 | 23–16 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 25–21 |
| Overs–unders | 46–39 | 39–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 12–2 PHX in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 14.
- Apr 25OKC 121 @ PHX 109PlayoffsPicked OKC 76%Hit
- Apr 22PHX 107 @ OKC 120PlayoffsPicked OKC 91%Hit
- Apr 19PHX 84 @ OKC 119PlayoffsPicked OKC 90%Hit
- Apr 12PHX 135 @ OKC 103Picked OKC 73%Miss
- Feb 11OKC 136 @ PHX 109Picked OKC 71%Hit
- Jan 4OKC 105 @ PHX 108Picked OKC 77%Miss
- Dec 10PHX 89 @ OKC 138Picked OKC 88%Hit
- Nov 28PHX 119 @ OKC 123Picked OKC 86%Hit