Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Jamaree BouyeaPoints27
- Jamaree BouyeaAssists9
- Khaman MaluachRebounds14
Thunder- Branden CarlsonPoints26
- Nikola TopicAssists14
- Branden CarlsonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game135–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter135–103
- Q413.0shot clock turnover135–103
- Q435.5Rasheer Fleming defensive rebound135–103
- Q438.6Branden Carlson misses 25-foot three point jumper135–103
- Q448.6Koby Brea makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot135–103
- Q41:00Khaman Maluach defensive rebound132–103
- Q41:03Jamaree Bouyea blocks Kenrich Williams 's 2-foot layup132–103
- Q41:12Rasheer Fleming makes 8-foot two point shot132–103
- Q41:34Payton Sandfort makes 3-foot running jump shot (Kenrich Williams assists)130–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:45Amir Coffey makes 23-foot running jump shot (Ryan Dunn assists)PHX 16 – 5 OKC · PHX 45% → 51% +7PHX 45% → 51%+7 pts
- Q210:05Kenrich Williams makes 24-foot three pointer (Nikola Topic assists)PHX 43 – 28 OKC · OKC 27% → 34% +6OKC 27% → 34%+6 pts
- Q28:39Rasheer Fleming makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ryan Dunn assists)PHX 48 – 30 OKC · PHX 67% → 74% +7PHX 67% → 74%+7 pts
- Q23:12Branden Carlson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Aaron Wiggins assists)PHX 60 – 46 OKC · OKC 23% → 30% +7OKC 23% → 30%+7 pts
- Q38:10Branden Carlson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Topic assists)PHX 77 – 63 OKC · OKC 16% → 23% +7OKC 16% → 23%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -7.5
- ML PHX +250 / OKC -310
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -5.5
- OKC 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- OKC: Elo 70.8%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- OKC -265
- PHX +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 103.0 – 110.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 213.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1736 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −82 | −221 | PHX: Missing Mark Williams −30, Jalen Green −20, Collin Gillespie −18 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · OKC: Missing Ajay Mitchell −35, Isaiah Joe −26, Jaylin Williams −17 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | −12 | PHX crossed 2 time zones and OKC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +154 Elo | OKC 70.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 64.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 65.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 72.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30112.3 | Points scored | 119.25th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.2 | Points allowed | 107.52nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +11.71st of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.8 | Offense rating | 117.05th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 105.51st of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.1 | Pace | 100.919th of 30 |
| 17th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 16th of 3019–21 | Road vs home | 34–61st of 30 |
| 3rd of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 30 |
| 19th of 301491 | Elo rating | 17361st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−82 Elo- Mark Williams left foot−30 Elo
- Jalen Green right knee soreness−20 Elo
- Collin Gillespie right shoulder contusion−18 Elo
- Jordan Goodwin left ankle sprain−5 Elo
Thunder
−221 Elo- Ajay Mitchell left ankle−35 Elo
- Isaiah Joe left knee soreness−26 Elo
- Jaylin Williams right achilles tendinitis−17 Elo
- Cason Wallace sore left toe−7 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 46–35 | 39–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–16 | 36–40 |
| Underdog | 23–19 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 36–45 | 43–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 1–9 OKC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Feb 11OKC 136 @ PHX 109Picked OKC 71%Hit
- Jan 4OKC 105 @ PHX 108Picked OKC 77%Miss
- Dec 10PHX 89 @ OKC 138Picked OKC 88%Hit
- Nov 28PHX 119 @ OKC 123Picked OKC 86%Hit
- Apr 9OKC 125 @ PHX 112Picked OKC 70%Hit
- Feb 5PHX 109 @ OKC 140Picked OKC 85%Hit
- Nov 15PHX 83 @ OKC 99Picked OKC 73%Hit
- Mar 29PHX 103 @ OKC 128Picked PHX 54%Miss