Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Branden CarlsonPoints23
- Nikola TopicAssists11
- Branden CarlsonRebounds12
Nuggets- Jonas ValanciunasPoints23
- Bruce BrownAssists6
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–127
- Q48.6shot clock turnover107–127
- Q431.8Nikola Topic bad pass
turnover (David Roddy steals)107–127
- Q437.4KJ Simpson makes driving layup107–127
- Q447.9Brooks Barnhizer makes free throw 2 of 2107–125
- Q447.9Thunder offensive team rebound106–125
- Q447.9Brooks Barnhizer misses free throw 1 of 2106–125
- Q447.9Curtis Jones personal foul106–125
- Q451.8David Roddy makes free throw 2 of 2106–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:23Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 26-foot three pointerOKC 59 – 64 DEN · DEN 60% → 69% +8DEN 60% → 69%+8 pts
- Q35:10Kenrich Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jared McCain assists)OKC 73 – 77 DEN · OKC 24% → 33% +9OKC 24% → 33%+9 pts
- Q33:47Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 29-foot three point jumper (Bruce Brown assists)OKC 75 – 80 DEN · DEN 61% → 71% +10DEN 61% → 71%+10 pts
- Q31:34Jalen Pickett makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)OKC 81 – 87 DEN · DEN 65% → 75% +10DEN 65% → 75%+10 pts
- Q330.4Zeke Nnaji makes 23-foot three point jumper (Curtis Jones assists)OKC 85 – 90 DEN · DEN 61% → 72% +11DEN 61% → 72%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -2.5
- ML OKC +120 / DEN -142
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 34%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -3.5
- DEN 36%
- Ratings vs. market
- −20.8 pts
- DEN: Elo 35.5%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- DEN -129
- OKC +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 110.5 – 113.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1759 | 1625 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −221 | −238 | OKC: Missing Ajay Mitchell −35, Isaiah Joe −26, Jaylin Williams −17 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · DEN: Missing Christian Braun −29, Cameron Johnson −28 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | OKC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +103 Elo | OKC 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 66.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 65.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.4 | Points scored | 121.91st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.3 | Points allowed | 117.021st of 30 |
| 1st of 30+12.1 | Margin | +4.97th of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.1 | Offense rating | 120.21st of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.3 | Defense rating | 115.421st of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.9 | Pace | 100.120th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–1 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 30 |
| 1st of 3030–9 | Road vs home | 27–137th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 148930th of 30 |
| 1st of 301759 | Elo rating | 16256th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
−221 Elo- Ajay Mitchell left ankle−35 Elo
- Isaiah Joe left knee soreness−26 Elo
- Jaylin Williams right achilles tendinitis−17 Elo
- Cason Wallace left toe−5 Elo
Nuggets
−238 Elo- Christian Braun injury management−29 Elo
- Cameron Johnson right ankle injury−28 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 39–41 | 42–38 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 36–40 | 25–31 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 17–7 |
| Overs–unders | 42–38 | 49–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 12–6 DEN in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 18.
- Mar 9DEN 126 @ OKC 129Picked OKC 58%Hit
- Feb 27DEN 121 @ OKC 127Picked OKC 69%Hit
- Feb 1OKC 121 @ DEN 111Picked OKC 67%Hit
- May 18DEN 93 @ OKC 125PlayoffsPicked OKC 73%Hit
- May 15OKC 107 @ DEN 119PlayoffsPicked OKC 64%Miss
- May 13DEN 105 @ OKC 112PlayoffsPicked OKC 79%Hit
- May 11OKC 92 @ DEN 87PlayoffsPicked OKC 70%Hit
- May 9OKC 104 @ DEN 113PlayoffsPicked OKC 69%Miss