Oklahoma City Thunder at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints42
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds7
Suns- Dillon BrooksPoints33
- Devin BookerAssists7
- Collin GillespieRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–109
- Q45.7Amir Coffey out of bounds bad pass turnover121–109
- Q418.7Khaman Maluach defensive rebound121–109
- Q421.6Kenrich Williams misses 25-foot three point jumper121–109
- Q442.8Khaman Maluach makes 5-foot dunk (Ryan Dunn assists)121–109
- Q451.3Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2121–107
- Q451.3Kenrich Williams enters the game for Ajay Mitchell120–107
- Q451.3Nikola Topic enters the game for Alex Caruso120–107
- Q451.3Aaron Wiggins enters the game for Chet Holmgren120–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:21Cason Wallace makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaylin Williams assists)OKC 18 – 24 PHX · OKC 55% → 61% +7OKC 55% → 61%+7 pts
- Q12:57Jaylin Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Alex Caruso assists)OKC 21 – 24 PHX · OKC 61% → 68% +6OKC 61% → 68%+6 pts
- Q12:11Grayson Allen makes 28-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)OKC 23 – 27 PHX · PHX 29% → 35% +6PHX 29% → 35%+6 pts
- Q23:09Jaylin Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 55 – 51 PHX · OKC 72% → 79% +6OKC 72% → 79%+6 pts
- Q31:07Jalen Green makes 26-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)OKC 85 – 79 PHX · PHX 10% → 17% +6PHX 10% → 17%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -8.5
- ML OKC -375 / PHX +295
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -7
- OKC 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- OKC: Elo 75.8%, market 75.7%
- Fair odds
- OKC -312
- PHX +312 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 110.0 – 101.5 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 211.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1710 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +33 | −8 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +198 Elo | OKC 75.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 83.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 83.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 75.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.0 | Points scored | 112.626th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.9 | Points allowed | 111.16th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.1 | Margin | +1.515th of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.8 | Offense rating | 113.116th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.8 | Defense rating | 111.69th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.9 | Pace | 99.124th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–517th of 30 |
| 1st of 3030–10 | Road vs home | 25–1613th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15093rd of 30 |
| 1st of 301710 | Elo rating | 151717th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–44 | 48–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 37–42 | 23–16 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 25–20 |
| Overs–unders | 45–39 | 38–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 11–2 PHX in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.
- Apr 22PHX 107 @ OKC 120PlayoffsPicked OKC 91%Hit
- Apr 19PHX 84 @ OKC 119PlayoffsPicked OKC 90%Hit
- Apr 12PHX 135 @ OKC 103Picked OKC 73%Miss
- Feb 11OKC 136 @ PHX 109Picked OKC 71%Hit
- Jan 4OKC 105 @ PHX 108Picked OKC 77%Miss
- Dec 10PHX 89 @ OKC 138Picked OKC 88%Hit
- Nov 28PHX 119 @ OKC 123Picked OKC 86%Hit
- Apr 9OKC 125 @ PHX 112Picked OKC 70%Hit