Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints23
- Royce O'NealeAssists3
- Oso IghodaroRebounds9
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints25
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists7
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game84–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter84–119
- Q413.0shot clock turnover84–119
- Q436.7Jamaree Bouyea makes free throw 2 of 284–119
- Q436.7Suns offensive team rebound83–119
- Q436.7Jamaree Bouyea misses free throw 1 of 283–119
- Q436.7Jared McCain personal foul83–119
- Q451.7Kenrich Williams makes 1-foot two point shot83–119
- Q41:01Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound83–117
- Q41:04Jamaree Bouyea misses 10-foot two point shot83–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:11Dillon Brooks makes 26-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 3 – 0 OKC · PHX 10% → 13% +3PHX 10% → 13%+3 pts
- Q110:42Devin Booker makes 1-foot running dunk (Oso Ighodaro assists)PHX 5 – 0 OKC · PHX 14% → 16% +2PHX 14% → 16%+2 pts
- Q110:23Luguentz Dort makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)PHX 5 – 3 OKC · OKC 84% → 87% +4OKC 84% → 87%+4 pts
- Q18:53Collin Gillespie makes 26-foot three point jumper (Oso Ighodaro assists)PHX 10 – 7 OKC · PHX 11% → 14% +3PHX 11% → 14%+3 pts
- Q17:51Jalen Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)PHX 12 – 12 OKC · OKC 85% → 89% +3OKC 85% → 89%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 90%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -16.5
- ML PHX +850 / OKC -1450
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -9
- OKC 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- OKC: Elo 81.1%, market 89.9%
- Fair odds
- OKC -889
- PHX +889 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 100.0 – 116.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1699 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +2 | +37 | PHX: Usual rotation · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +253 Elo | OKC 81.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 84.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 83.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 89.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30112.6 | Points scored | 119.05th of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.1 | Points allowed | 107.92nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.5 | Margin | +11.11st of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 116.86th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 105.81st of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.1 | Pace | 100.919th of 30 |
| 17th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 15th of 3020–21 | Road vs home | 34–71st of 30 |
| 4th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 14th of 301528 | Elo rating | 16992nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 47–35 | 39–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–16 | 36–41 |
| Underdog | 24–19 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 37–45 | 44–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 2–9 OKC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.
- Apr 12PHX 135 @ OKC 103Picked OKC 73%Miss
- Feb 11OKC 136 @ PHX 109Picked OKC 71%Hit
- Jan 4OKC 105 @ PHX 108Picked OKC 77%Miss
- Dec 10PHX 89 @ OKC 138Picked OKC 88%Hit
- Nov 28PHX 119 @ OKC 123Picked OKC 86%Hit
- Apr 9OKC 125 @ PHX 112Picked OKC 70%Hit
- Feb 5PHX 109 @ OKC 140Picked OKC 85%Hit
- Nov 15PHX 83 @ OKC 99Picked OKC 73%Hit