Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Dillon BrooksPoints30
- Collin GillespieAssists6
- Royce O'NealeRebounds9
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints37
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists9
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–120
- Q41.3shot clock turnover107–120
- Q425.3Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2107–120
- Q425.3Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2107–119
- Q425.3Jamaree Bouyea enters the game for Jalen Green107–118
- Q425.3Amir Coffey enters the game for Dillon Brooks107–118
- Q425.3Ryan Dunn enters the game for Devin Booker107–118
- Q425.3Rasheer Fleming enters the game for Royce O'Neale107–118
- Q425.3Dillon Brooks personal foul107–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:44Collin Gillespie makes 26-foot running jump shot (Devin Booker assists)PHX 9 – 6 OKC · PHX 10% → 13% +3PHX 10% → 13%+3 pts
- Q211:38Royce O'Neale makes 24-foot three pointer (Dillon Brooks assists)PHX 32 – 30 OKC · PHX 11% → 15% +4PHX 11% → 15%+4 pts
- Q211:15Isaiah Joe makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)PHX 32 – 33 OKC · OKC 85% → 89% +4OKC 85% → 89%+4 pts
- Q210:50Isaiah Joe makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ajay Mitchell assists)PHX 32 – 36 OKC · OKC 89% → 92% +3OKC 89% → 92%+3 pts
- Q28:01Jalen Green makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshotPHX 41 – 43 OKC · PHX 8% → 11% +3PHX 8% → 11%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 91%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -17.5
- ML PHX +1000 / OKC -1800
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -9.5
- OKC 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- OKC: Elo 82.6%, market 91.2%
- Fair odds
- OKC -1042
- PHX +1042 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 99.5 – 117.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1707 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −8 | +41 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +271 Elo | OKC 82.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 87.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 86.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 91.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30112.6 | Points scored | 119.05th of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.1 | Points allowed | 107.92nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.5 | Margin | +11.11st of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 116.86th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 105.81st of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.1 | Pace | 100.919th of 30 |
| 17th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 15th of 3020–21 | Road vs home | 34–71st of 30 |
| 3rd of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 16th of 301520 | Elo rating | 17071st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 47–36 | 40–43 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–16 | 37–41 |
| Underdog | 24–20 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 37–46 | 44–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 2–10 OKC in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.
- Apr 19PHX 84 @ OKC 119PlayoffsPicked OKC 90%Hit
- Apr 12PHX 135 @ OKC 103Picked OKC 73%Miss
- Feb 11OKC 136 @ PHX 109Picked OKC 71%Hit
- Jan 4OKC 105 @ PHX 108Picked OKC 77%Miss
- Dec 10PHX 89 @ OKC 138Picked OKC 88%Hit
- Nov 28PHX 119 @ OKC 123Picked OKC 86%Hit
- Apr 9OKC 125 @ PHX 112Picked OKC 70%Hit
- Feb 5PHX 109 @ OKC 140Picked OKC 85%Hit