Los Angeles Lakers at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints28
- LeBron JamesAssists8
- Deandre AytonRebounds16
Rockets- Amen ThompsonPoints18
- Amen ThompsonAssists3
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–78
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–78
- Q421.3Clint Capela makes two point shot98–78
- Q421.3Clint Capela offensive rebound98–76
- Q423.6Jae'Sean Tate misses running pullup jump shot98–76
- Q428.0Jae'Sean Tate defensive rebound98–76
- Q429.2Nick Smith Jr. misses 27-foot three point jumper98–76
- Q450.3Aaron Holiday makes driving layup98–76
- Q41:05Josh Okogie defensive rebound98–74
- Q41:05Dalton Knecht misses 26-foot three point jumper98–74
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:23Luke Kennard makes 22-foot running jump shot (LeBron James assists)LAL 17 – 16 HOU · LAL 34% → 40% +6LAL 34% → 40%+6 pts
- Q13:31Jake LaRavia makes 23-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 20 – 16 HOU · LAL 40% → 47% +7LAL 40% → 47%+7 pts
- Q12:34Rui Hachimura makes 24-foot three point jumper (Luke Kennard assists)LAL 23 – 16 HOU · LAL 47% → 54% +7LAL 47% → 54%+7 pts
- Q210:19LeBron James makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotLAL 30 – 18 HOU · LAL 61% → 68% +7LAL 61% → 68%+7 pts
- Q21:15Rui Hachimura makes 25-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)LAL 46 – 31 HOU · LAL 73% → 80% +7LAL 73% → 80%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -5.5
- ML LAL +160 / HOU -192
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -1
- HOU 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 53.4%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -171
- LAL +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 99.0 – 104.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 203.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1621 | 1611 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −32 | −35 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | −24 | LAL crossed 2 time zones and HOU crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +24 Elo | HOU 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 57.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 115.218th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.6 | Points allowed | 110.04th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.8 | Margin | +5.26th of 30 |
| 8th of 30116.2 | Offense rating | 116.09th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 110.85th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.9 | Pace | 98.129th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 9–12nd of 30 |
| 6th of 3025–16 | Road vs home | 30–115th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149127th of 30 |
| 6th of 301621 | Elo rating | 16119th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 49–38 | 38–49 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 31–19 | 31–45 |
| Underdog | 18–19 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 43–44 | 41–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 9–6 HOU in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.
- Apr 29HOU 99 @ LAL 93PlayoffsPicked LAL 58%Miss
- Apr 26LAL 96 @ HOU 115PlayoffsPicked HOU 59%Hit
- Apr 24LAL 112 @ HOU 108PlayoffsPicked HOU 69%Miss
- Apr 21HOU 94 @ LAL 101PlayoffsPicked HOU 67%Miss
- Apr 18HOU 98 @ LAL 107PlayoffsPicked HOU 55%Miss
- Mar 18LAL 124 @ HOU 116Picked HOU 54%Miss
- Mar 16LAL 100 @ HOU 92Picked LAL 52%Hit
- Dec 25HOU 119 @ LAL 96Picked HOU 53%Hit