Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Jabari Smith Jr.Points22
- Alperen SengunAssists8
- Alperen SengunRebounds9
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints25
- LeBron JamesAssists7
- Deandre AytonRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–93
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–93
- Q46.3Reed Sheppard enters the game for Josh Okogie99–93
- Q46.3Rockets defensive team rebound99–93
- Q46.3Austin Reaves misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot99–93
- Q411.9Luke Kennard enters the game for Rui Hachimura99–93
- Q411.9Lakers Full timeout99–93
- Q411.9Jabari Smith Jr. makes free throw 2 of 299–93
- Q411.9Josh Okogie enters the game for Reed Sheppard98–93
- Q411.9Jabari Smith Jr. makes free throw 1 of 298–93
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:52Aaron Holiday makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)HOU 72 – 64 LAL · HOU 64% → 74% +10HOU 64% → 74%+10 pts
- Q410:30Amen Thompson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Reed Sheppard assists)HOU 79 – 69 LAL · HOU 75% → 85% +9HOU 75% → 85%+9 pts
- Q44:44Rui Hachimura makes 26-foot running jump shot (Luke Kennard assists)HOU 87 – 81 LAL · LAL 8% → 18% +10LAL 8% → 18%+10 pts
- Q42:59LeBron James makes driving layup (Luke Kennard assists)HOU 88 – 85 LAL · LAL 16% → 28% +12LAL 16% → 28%+12 pts
- Q42:37Reed Sheppard makes 15-foot pullup jump shotHOU 90 – 85 LAL · HOU 73% → 86% +12HOU 73% → 86%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -3.5
- ML HOU +130 / LAL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -2.5
- LAL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- LAL: Elo 59.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- LAL -140
- HOU +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 103.0 – 106.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 209.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1601 | 1631 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −37 | −34 | HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +69 Elo | LAL 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 52.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30115.2 | Points scored | 116.311th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.0 | Points allowed | 114.611th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.2 | Margin | +1.814th of 30 |
| 9th of 30116.0 | Offense rating | 116.28th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 114.419th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.1 | Pace | 99.922nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–1 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 10th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 28–137th of 30 |
| 27th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149424th of 30 |
| 10th of 301601 | Elo rating | 16315th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–49 | 49–37 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 31–45 | 31–18 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 18–19 |
| Overs–unders | 41–45 | 43–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 5–9 LAL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 14.
- Apr 26LAL 96 @ HOU 115PlayoffsPicked HOU 59%Hit
- Apr 24LAL 112 @ HOU 108PlayoffsPicked HOU 69%Miss
- Apr 21HOU 94 @ LAL 101PlayoffsPicked HOU 67%Miss
- Apr 18HOU 98 @ LAL 107PlayoffsPicked HOU 55%Miss
- Mar 18LAL 124 @ HOU 116Picked HOU 54%Miss
- Mar 16LAL 100 @ HOU 92Picked LAL 52%Hit
- Dec 25HOU 119 @ LAL 96Picked HOU 53%Hit
- Apr 11HOU 109 @ LAL 140Picked LAL 88%Hit