Los Angeles Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints27
- Marcus SmartAssists7
- Deandre AytonRebounds12
Thunder- Chet HolmgrenPoints24
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists6
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game90–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter90–108
- Q420.5Jake LaRavia makes 22-foot three point jumper (Bronny James assists)90–108
- Q441.0Isaiah Joe makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jared McCain assists)87–108
- Q451.1shot clock turnover87–105
- Q41:13Nick Smith Jr. defensive rebound87–105
- Q41:15Aaron Wiggins misses two point shot87–105
- Q41:26Jaylin Williams defensive rebound87–105
- Q41:29Dalton Knecht misses 12-foot pullup jump shot87–105
- Q41:45Dalton Knecht enters the game for Marcus Smart87–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:51LeBron James makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotLAL 7 – 0 OKC · LAL 19% → 24% +5LAL 19% → 24%+5 pts
- Q110:30Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot three point jumper (Chet Holmgren assists)LAL 7 – 3 OKC · OKC 76% → 81% +5OKC 76% → 81%+5 pts
- Q12:18Jaylin Williams makes 24-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)LAL 22 – 22 OKC · OKC 79% → 84% +5OKC 79% → 84%+5 pts
- Q36:40Rui Hachimura makes 22-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)LAL 65 – 69 OKC · LAL 10% → 15% +5LAL 10% → 15%+5 pts
- Q34:56Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylin Williams assists)LAL 65 – 74 OKC · OKC 88% → 92% +4OKC 88% → 92%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -15.5
- ML LAL +600 / OKC -900
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -7.5
- OKC 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.3 pts
- OKC: Elo 77.0%, market 86.3%
- Fair odds
- OKC -630
- LAL +630 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 98.5 – 114.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 212.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1639 | 1719 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −27 | +42 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | LAL crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +210 Elo | OKC 77.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 82.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 82.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 86.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 119.05th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.6 | Points allowed | 107.92nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.8 | Margin | +11.11st of 30 |
| 8th of 30116.2 | Offense rating | 116.86th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 105.81st of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.9 | Pace | 100.919th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 6th of 3025–16 | Road vs home | 34–71st of 30 |
| 24th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 6th of 301639 | Elo rating | 17191st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 50–38 | 41–45 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 31–19 | 38–43 |
| Underdog | 19–19 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 43–45 | 47–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 4–7 OKC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.
- Apr 7OKC 123 @ LAL 87Picked OKC 92%Hit
- Apr 2LAL 96 @ OKC 139Picked OKC 76%Hit
- Feb 9OKC 119 @ LAL 110Picked OKC 68%Hit
- Nov 12LAL 92 @ OKC 121Picked OKC 73%Hit
- Apr 8LAL 120 @ OKC 136Picked OKC 77%Hit
- Apr 6LAL 126 @ OKC 99Picked OKC 76%Miss
- Nov 29OKC 101 @ LAL 93Picked OKC 57%Hit
- Mar 4OKC 104 @ LAL 116Picked LAL 58%Hit