Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints35
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds10
Lakers- Austin ReavesPoints27
- Austin ReavesAssists6
- LeBron JamesRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–110
- Q40.8Chet Holmgren defensive rebound115–110
- Q41.6Austin Reaves misses tip shot115–110
- Q41.6Austin Reaves offensive rebound115–110
- Q43.5Marcus Smart misses 24-foot three point jumper115–110
- Q44.2Chet Holmgren enters the game for Ajay Mitchell115–110
- Q46.4Ajay Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2115–110
- Q46.4Cason Wallace enters the game for Jared McCain114–110
- Q46.4Luguentz Dort enters the game for Chet Holmgren114–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:53Jared McCain makes 26-foot three point jumper (Alex Caruso assists)OKC 92 – 92 LAL · OKC 47% → 63% +16OKC 47% → 63%+16 pts
- Q43:57Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshotOKC 102 – 98 LAL · OKC 67% → 84% +17OKC 67% → 84%+17 pts
- Q440.9Marcus Smart makes driving layupOKC 109 – 109 LAL · LAL 16% → 46% +29LAL 16% → 46%+29 pts
- Q440.9Marcus Smart makes free throw 1 of 1OKC 109 – 110 LAL · LAL 46% → 63% +17LAL 46% → 63%+17 pts
- Q432.8Chet Holmgren makes 1-foot dunk (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)OKC 111 – 110 LAL · OKC 35% → 72% +37OKC 35% → 72%+37 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -12.5
- ML OKC -575 / LAL +425
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -6
- OKC 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.1 pts
- OKC: Elo 72.7%, market 81.7%
- Fair odds
- OKC -447
- LAL +447 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 113.5 – 101.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1741 | 1616 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +47 | −34 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +170 Elo | OKC 72.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 78.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 78.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 81.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.0 | Points scored | 116.311th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.9 | Points allowed | 114.611th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.1 | Margin | +1.814th of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.8 | Offense rating | 116.28th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.8 | Defense rating | 114.419th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.9 | Pace | 99.922nd of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 1st of 3030–10 | Road vs home | 28–137th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149523rd of 30 |
| 1st of 301741 | Elo rating | 16168th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 44–45 | 50–41 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 41–43 | 31–19 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 19–22 |
| Overs–unders | 49–40 | 45–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 10–4 LAL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 14.
- May 9OKC 131 @ LAL 108PlayoffsPicked OKC 76%Hit
- May 7LAL 107 @ OKC 125PlayoffsPicked OKC 86%Hit
- May 5LAL 90 @ OKC 108PlayoffsPicked OKC 86%Hit
- Apr 7OKC 123 @ LAL 87Picked OKC 92%Hit
- Apr 2LAL 96 @ OKC 139Picked OKC 76%Hit
- Feb 9OKC 119 @ LAL 110Picked OKC 68%Hit
- Nov 12LAL 92 @ OKC 121Picked OKC 73%Hit
- Apr 8LAL 120 @ OKC 136Picked OKC 77%Hit