Utah Jazz at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints22
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists5
- Lauri MarkkanenRebounds9
Grizzlies- Ty JeromePoints45
- Ty JeromeAssists6
- Cameron BoozerRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–123
- Q45.7Isaiah Collier bad pass
turnover (Jaylen Wells steals)103–123
- Q416.8Jaylen Wells makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)103–123
- Q437.4Brice Sensabaugh makes 4-foot two point shot (Isaiah Collier assists)103–120
- Q455.8Brice Sensabaugh defensive rebound101–120
- Q455.8Jerami Grant misses 25-foot three point jumper101–120
- Q41:13Brice Sensabaugh lost ball turnover (Scotty Pippen Jr. steals)101–120
- Q41:29Josh Okogie defensive rebound101–120
- Q41:29Jerami Grant misses 21-foot jumper101–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q143.4Svi Mykhailiuk makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ace Bailey assists)UTAH 31 – 22 MEM · UTAH 63% → 69% +7UTAH 63% → 69%+7 pts
- Q210:26Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brice Sensabaugh assists)UTAH 34 – 35 MEM · UTAH 39% → 46% +7UTAH 39% → 46%+7 pts
- Q210:16Cedric Coward makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ty Jerome assists)UTAH 34 – 38 MEM · MEM 54% → 61% +7MEM 54% → 61%+7 pts
- Q26:32Keyonte George makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotUTAH 43 – 46 MEM · UTAH 33% → 41% +7UTAH 33% → 41%+7 pts
- Q25:58Jerami Grant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cam Spencer assists)UTAH 43 – 49 MEM · MEM 59% → 67% +7MEM 59% → 67%+7 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Grizzlies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -1.5
- ML UTAH -102 / MEM -118
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -1.5
- MEM 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- MEM: Elo 55.2%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- MEM -107
- UTAH +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 120.5 – 122.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 242.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1375 | 1363 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +40 | Worth 40 Elo in the NBA |
| Injuries | −14 | −6 | Key absences: Kyle Filipowski, GG Jackson, Blake Hinson |
| Elo ratings | MEM +36 Elo | MEM 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 55.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.6 | Points scored | 114.720th of 30 |
| 30th of 30126.0 | Points allowed | 120.726th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.4 | Margin | −6.024th of 30 |
| 21st of 30111.9 | Offense rating | 110.425th of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.9 | Defense rating | 116.223rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.3 | Pace | 103.64th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 1–927th of 30 |
| 26th of 308–33 | Road vs home | 13–2727th of 30 |
| 1st of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 30 |
| 28th of 301366 | Elo rating | 138727th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+79 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  UTAH |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–41 | 37–45 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–3 | 10–9 |
| Underdog | 35–38 | 27–36 |
| Overs–unders | 49–33 | 43–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 4–7 MEM in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.
- Apr 10MEM 101 @ UTAH 147Picked UTAH 62%Hit
- Feb 20UTAH 114 @ MEM 123Picked MEM 55%Hit
- Dec 23MEM 137 @ UTAH 128Picked MEM 61%Hit
- Dec 12UTAH 130 @ MEM 126Picked MEM 71%Miss
- Mar 25MEM 140 @ UTAH 103Picked MEM 81%Hit
- Mar 12UTAH 115 @ MEM 122Picked MEM 81%Hit
- Jan 25UTAH 103 @ MEM 125Picked MEM 81%Hit
- Oct 23MEM 126 @ UTAH 124Picked MEM 55%Hit