Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
MIN went from 74% to 60% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, October 27 at 10:34 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints44
- Stephen CurryAssists6
- Yaxel LendeborgRebounds9
Timberwolves- Jonathan KumingaPoints20
- LaMelo BallAssists8
- Joan BeringerRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–114
- Q40.1Stephen Curry makes free throw 2 of 2119–114
- Q40.1(00:00.1) [Warriors] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)118–114
- Q40.1Stephen Curry makes free throw 1 of 2118–114
- Q40.1Rudy Gobert personal take foul117–114
- Q40.8Bones Hyland makes 16-foot jump bank shot117–114
- Q43.2Bones Hyland offensive rebound117–112
- Q43.2Jaden McDaniels misses 25-foot three point jumper117–112
- Q46.1Gary Payton II enters the game for De'Anthony Melton117–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:11Stephen Curry makes 24-foot three pointerGS 33 – 29 MIN · GS 44% → 51% +7GS 44% → 51%+7 pts
- Q28:39Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)GS 36 – 31 MIN · GS 46% → 54% +8GS 46% → 54%+8 pts
- Q27:45Jonathan Kuminga makes 24-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)GS 38 – 34 MIN · MIN 41% → 48% +8MIN 41% → 48%+8 pts
- Q27:31Stephen Curry makes 24-foot three pointerGS 41 – 34 MIN · GS 52% → 59% +8GS 52% → 59%+8 pts
- Q26:48Stephen Curry makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)GS 46 – 38 MIN · GS 55% → 62% +8GS 55% → 62%+8 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Timberwolves 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -3.5
- ML GS +142 / MIN -170
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -4
- MIN 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 66.5%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -152
- GS +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 112.0 – 115.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1615 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −9 | −71 | GS: Missing Jimmy Butler III −37, Kristaps Porzingis −26, Yaxel Lendeborg (40% to sit) −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIN: Missing Anthony Edwards −42 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −12 | — | GS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +119 Elo | MIN 66.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 66.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30117.3 | Points scored | 122.04th of 30 |
| 21st of 30120.8 | Points allowed | 105.04th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−3.5 | Margin | +17.02nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.1 | Offense rating | 115.75th of 30 |
| 28th of 30120.6 | Defense rating | 99.63rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30100.3 | Pace | 102.518th of 30 |
| 17th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
| 17th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 151316th of 30 |
| 19th of 301481 | Elo rating | 16154th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−70 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  GS |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–47 | 43–51 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–29 | 27–34 |
| Underdog | 14–18 | 16–17 |
| Overs–unders | 48–34 | 45–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 5–11 MIN in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 16.
- Mar 13MIN 127 @ GS 117Picked MIN 64%Hit
- Jan 26GS 83 @ MIN 108Picked MIN 72%Hit
- Jan 25GS 111 @ MIN 85Picked MIN 64%Miss
- Dec 12MIN 127 @ GS 120Picked GS 63%Miss
- May 14GS 110 @ MIN 121PlayoffsPicked MIN 77%Hit
- May 12MIN 117 @ GS 110PlayoffsPicked MIN 64%Hit
- May 10MIN 102 @ GS 97PlayoffsPicked MIN 66%Hit
- May 8GS 93 @ MIN 117PlayoffsPicked MIN 81%Hit