San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Stephon CastlePoints32
- De'Aaron FoxAssists9
- Stephon CastleRebounds11
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints24
- Ayo DosunmuAssists9
- Naz ReidRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game139–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter139–109
- Q412.7shot clock turnover139–109
- Q426.7Bones Hyland personal foul139–109
- Q449.9Mason Plumlee defensive rebound139–109
- Q452.6Bones Hyland misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot139–109
- Q41:02Timberwolves defensive team rebound139–109
- Q41:03Joan Beringer blocks Mason Plumlee 's 2-foot layup139–109
- Q41:10Jordan McLaughlin defensive rebound139–109
- Q41:14Julian Phillips misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot139–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:15De'Aaron Fox makes 25-foot three pointer (Stephon Castle assists)SA 3 – 0 MIN · SA 66% → 72% +6SA 66% → 72%+6 pts
- Q110:06Stephon Castle makes 26-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SA 8 – 2 MIN · SA 72% → 77% +5SA 72% → 77%+5 pts
- Q14:29Naz Reid makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Ayo Dosunmu assists)SA 25 – 20 MIN · MIN 20% → 25% +5MIN 20% → 25%+5 pts
- Q14:02Stephon Castle makes 25-foot three point jumper (Keldon Johnson assists)SA 28 – 20 MIN · SA 75% → 80% +5SA 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q11:46Mike Conley makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ayo Dosunmu assists)SA 32 – 25 MIN · MIN 17% → 22% +5MIN 17% → 22%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- SA -5.5
- ML SA -225 / MIN +185
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -5
- SA 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- SA: Elo 69.0%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- SA -197
- MIN +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 112.5 – 107.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1713 | 1610 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +51 | −21 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +139 Elo | SA 69.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 67.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 67.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30119.7 | Points scored | 118.07th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 114.612th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+8.1 | Margin | +3.410th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.4 | Offense rating | 114.612th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 111.38th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.7 | Pace | 102.410th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–517th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3029–12 | Road vs home | 26–1510th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149128th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301713 | Elo rating | 16108th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 55–38 | 43–50 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 41–32 | 27–34 |
| Underdog | 14–6 | 16–16 |
| Overs–unders | 41–52 | 44–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 6–10 MIN in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 16.
- May 12MIN 97 @ SA 126PlayoffsPicked SA 77%Hit
- May 10SA 109 @ MIN 114PlayoffsPicked SA 64%Miss
- May 8SA 115 @ MIN 108PlayoffsPicked SA 66%Hit
- May 6MIN 95 @ SA 133PlayoffsPicked SA 78%Hit
- May 4MIN 104 @ SA 102PlayoffsPicked SA 77%Miss
- Jan 17MIN 123 @ SA 126Picked SA 64%Hit
- Jan 11SA 103 @ MIN 104Picked MIN 56%Hit
- Nov 30SA 112 @ MIN 125Picked MIN 64%Hit