San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Dylan HarperPoints24
- Stephon CastleAssists4
- Luke KornetRebounds9
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints36
- Naz ReidAssists4
- Rudy GobertRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–114
- Q40.4Dylan Harper offensive rebound109–114
- Q42.1Julian Champagnie misses 13-foot fade away jump shot109–114
- Q42.9Julian Champagnie offensive rebound109–114
- Q46.6De'Aaron Fox misses 31-foot three point shot109–114
- Q49.8De'Aaron Fox enters the game for Keldon Johnson109–114
- Q49.8Dylan Harper enters the game for Luke Kornet109–114
- Q49.8Spurs Full timeout109–114
- Q49.8Ayo Dosunmu makes free throw 2 of 2109–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:12Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three point jumper (Naz Reid assists)SA 97 – 98 MIN · MIN 33% → 52% +18MIN 33% → 52%+18 pts
- Q44:08Naz Reid makes driving layupSA 99 – 100 MIN · MIN 39% → 53% +14MIN 39% → 53%+14 pts
- Q43:22Dylan Harper makes running layupSA 101 – 100 MIN · SA 46% → 61% +16SA 46% → 61%+16 pts
- Q43:02Rudy Gobert makes layup (Naz Reid assists)SA 101 – 102 MIN · MIN 38% → 55% +16MIN 38% → 55%+16 pts
- Q42:24Anthony Edwards makes 1-foot two point shotSA 101 – 105 MIN · MIN 65% → 80% +15MIN 65% → 80%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- SA -5.5
- ML SA -198 / MIN +164
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -5.5
- SA 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.8 pts
- SA: Elo 70.5%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- SA -175
- MIN +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 112.0 – 106.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1714 | 1608 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +60 | −22 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +151 Elo | SA 70.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 70.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 70.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30119.7 | Points scored | 118.07th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 114.612th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+8.1 | Margin | +3.410th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.4 | Offense rating | 114.612th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 111.38th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.7 | Pace | 102.410th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–517th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3029–12 | Road vs home | 26–1510th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149128th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301714 | Elo rating | 16088th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+60 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 54–37 | 42–49 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 40–31 | 27–34 |
| Underdog | 14–6 | 15–15 |
| Overs–unders | 39–52 | 42–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 5–9 MIN in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 14.
- May 8SA 115 @ MIN 108PlayoffsPicked SA 66%Hit
- May 6MIN 95 @ SA 133PlayoffsPicked SA 78%Hit
- May 4MIN 104 @ SA 102PlayoffsPicked SA 77%Miss
- Jan 17MIN 123 @ SA 126Picked SA 64%Hit
- Jan 11SA 103 @ MIN 104Picked MIN 56%Hit
- Nov 30SA 112 @ MIN 125Picked MIN 64%Hit
- Mar 9SA 124 @ MIN 141Picked MIN 82%Hit
- Dec 29SA 110 @ MIN 112Picked MIN 67%Hit