Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each quarter. Above the line favors MIN.
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -7.5
- ML DEN -310 / MIN +250
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -0.5
- DEN 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −24.4 pts
- DEN: Elo 48.2%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- DEN -265
- MIN +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 115.5 – 108.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1628 | 1605 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | DEN crossed 1 time zone and MIN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +13 Elo | MIN 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 54.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 72.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
DEN | Stat |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30122.1 | Points scored | 118.07th of 30 |
| 21st of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 114.612th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+5.1 | Margin | +3.410th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.3 | Offense rating | 114.612th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.3 | Defense rating | 111.38th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.2 | Pace | 102.410th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 5–517th of 30 |
| 4th of 3026–15 | Road vs home | 26–1510th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149128th of 30 |
| 5th of 301628 | Elo rating | 16059th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 46–41 | 40–47 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 28–33 | 27–34 |
| Underdog | 18–8 | 13–13 |
| Overs–unders | 53–34 | 40–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 10–14 MIN in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 24.
- Apr 27MIN 113 @ DEN 125PlayoffsPicked DEN 80%Hit
- Apr 25DEN 96 @ MIN 112PlayoffsPicked DEN 52%Miss
- Apr 23DEN 96 @ MIN 113PlayoffsPicked MIN 50%Hit
- Apr 20MIN 119 @ DEN 114PlayoffsPicked DEN 72%Miss
- Apr 18MIN 105 @ DEN 116PlayoffsPicked DEN 70%Hit
- Mar 1MIN 117 @ DEN 108Picked DEN 56%Miss
- Dec 25MIN 138 @ DEN 142Picked MIN 51%Miss
- Nov 15DEN 123 @ MIN 112Picked DEN 52%Hit