Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints22
- Anthony EdwardsAssists7
- Rudy GobertRebounds10
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints30
- Nikola JokicAssists11
- Nikola JokicRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–116
- Q45.9shot clock turnover105–116
- Q430.0Julius Randle makes 1-foot driving dunk105–116
- Q433.9Tim Hardaway Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2103–116
- Q433.9Christian Braun enters the game for Jamal Murray103–115
- Q433.9Bruce Brown enters the game for Cameron Johnson103–115
- Q433.9Tim Hardaway Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2103–115
- Q433.9Donte DiVincenzo personal take foul103–114
- Q438.4Ayo Dosunmu enters the game for Rudy Gobert103–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:17Spencer Jones makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)MIN 53 – 53 DEN · DEN 57% → 65% +8DEN 57% → 65%+8 pts
- Q38:15Donte DiVincenzo makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Jaden McDaniels assists)MIN 68 – 68 DEN · MIN 28% → 37% +9MIN 28% → 37%+9 pts
- Q48:32Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three pointer (Rudy Gobert assists)MIN 89 – 93 DEN · MIN 14% → 24% +10MIN 14% → 24%+10 pts
- Q46:23Ayo Dosunmu makes driving layup (Donte DiVincenzo assists)MIN 95 – 97 DEN · MIN 22% → 32% +9MIN 22% → 32%+9 pts
- Q46:09Nikola Jokic makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot (Aaron Gordon assists)MIN 95 – 99 DEN · DEN 68% → 78% +10DEN 68% → 78%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -7.5
- ML MIN +220 / DEN -270
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -6
- DEN 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- DEN: Elo 73.1%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- DEN -234
- MIN +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 112.5 – 120.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1569 | 1664 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −9 | +34 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +173 Elo | DEN 73.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 70.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 71.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.0 | Points scored | 122.11st of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.6 | Points allowed | 116.921st of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.4 | Margin | +5.17th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.6 | Offense rating | 120.31st of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 115.321st of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.4 | Pace | 100.220th of 30 |
| 17th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 30 |
| 8th of 3023–18 | Road vs home | 28–137th of 30 |
| 24th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149325th of 30 |
| 11th of 301569 | Elo rating | 16644th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–45 | 44–38 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 26–34 | 26–31 |
| Underdog | 11–11 | 18–7 |
| Overs–unders | 38–44 | 51–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 11–8 DEN in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 19.
- Mar 1MIN 117 @ DEN 108Picked DEN 56%Miss
- Dec 25MIN 138 @ DEN 142Picked MIN 51%Miss
- Nov 15DEN 123 @ MIN 112Picked DEN 52%Hit
- Oct 27DEN 127 @ MIN 114Picked DEN 67%Hit
- Apr 1MIN 140 @ DEN 139Picked DEN 53%Miss
- Mar 12MIN 115 @ DEN 95Picked DEN 53%Miss
- Jan 25DEN 104 @ MIN 133Picked DEN 59%Miss
- Nov 1DEN 116 @ MIN 119Picked MIN 59%Hit