New Orleans Pelicans at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Jeremiah FearsPoints36
- Jeremiah FearsAssists5
- Derik QueenRebounds22
Timberwolves- Terrence Shannon Jr.Points26
- Joe InglesAssists10
- Joan BeringerRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–132
- Q47.1Jeremiah Fears makes 1-foot reverse layup126–132
- Q416.5Terrence Shannon Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2124–132
- Q416.5Julian Phillips enters the game for Joe Ingles124–131
- Q416.5Terrence Shannon Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2124–131
- Q416.5Trey Alexander personal take foul124–130
- Q419.1Derik Queen makes 26-foot three point shot (Jeremiah Fears assists)124–130
- Q425.4Terrence Shannon Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2121–130
- Q425.4Terrence Shannon Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2121–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:44Enrique Freeman makes 23-foot three point jumper (Joe Ingles assists)NO 78 – 85 MIN · MIN 70% → 78% +8MIN 70% → 78%+8 pts
- Q35:15Joe Ingles makes 25-foot three point jumper (Zyon Pullin assists)NO 80 – 88 MIN · MIN 73% → 81% +8MIN 73% → 81%+8 pts
- Q33:25Joe Ingles makes 25-foot three pointerNO 86 – 93 MIN · MIN 70% → 79% +9MIN 70% → 79%+9 pts
- Q42:57Trey Alexander makes running layup (Josh Oduro assists)NO 112 – 116 MIN · NO 9% → 18% +9NO 9% → 18%+9 pts
- Q42:43Zyon Pullin makes 1-foot driving dunkNO 112 – 118 MIN · MIN 83% → 92% +9MIN 83% → 92%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -3.5
- ML NO +150 / MIN -180
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -6
- MIN 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +11.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 72.6%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- MIN -161
- NO +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 118.0 – 121.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1384 | 1566 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −67 | −115 | NO: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Missing Bones Hyland −12, Ayo Dosunmu −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +169 Elo | MIN 72.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 72.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 72.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30115.4 | Points scored | 117.87th of 30 |
| 24th of 30119.9 | Points allowed | 114.511th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−4.5 | Margin | +3.310th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 114.513th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.4 | Defense rating | 111.38th of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.3 | Pace | 102.310th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–517th of 30 |
| 25th of 309–31 | Road vs home | 25–1511th of 30 |
| 11th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149424th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301384 | Elo rating | 156612th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−67 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−115 Elo- Bones Hyland right hip−12 Elo
- Ayo Dosunmu right calf−2 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 44–37 | 36–45 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–4 | 25–34 |
| Underdog | 31–33 | 11–11 |
| Overs–unders | 40–41 | 37–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 4–6 MIN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.
- Feb 6NO 119 @ MIN 115Picked MIN 74%Miss
- Dec 4MIN 125 @ NO 116Picked MIN 82%Hit
- Dec 2MIN 149 @ NO 142Picked MIN 84%Hit
- Mar 21NO 93 @ MIN 134Picked MIN 86%Hit
- Mar 19NO 119 @ MIN 115Picked MIN 85%Miss
- Jan 7MIN 104 @ NO 97Picked MIN 61%Hit
- Jan 3NO 117 @ MIN 106Picked MIN 63%Miss
- Dec 11MIN 107 @ NO 121Picked MIN 51%Miss