New Orleans Pelicans at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Jeremiah FearsPoints36
- Jeremiah FearsAssists6
- Josh OduroRebounds12
Celtics- Sam HauserPoints24
- Payton PritchardAssists10
- Neemias QuetaRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–144
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–144
- Q42.7shot clock turnover118–144
- Q426.8Derik Queen makes free throw 2 of 2118–144
- Q426.8Derik Queen makes free throw 1 of 2117–144
- Q426.8Hugo Gonzalez personal foul116–144
- Q433.5Josh Oduro defensive rebound116–144
- Q435.7Baylor Scheierman misses 25-foot running jump shot116–144
- Q438.6Luka Garza defensive rebound116–144
- Q440.3Luka Garza blocks Jeremiah Fears 's 2-foot driving layup116–144
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:47Derrick White makes 28-foot three pointer (Neemias Queta assists)NO 2 – 3 BOS · BOS 90% → 92% +3BOS 90% → 92%+3 pts
- Q110:25Sam Hauser makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)NO 2 – 6 BOS · BOS 92% → 94% +2BOS 92% → 94%+2 pts
- Q19:49Derrick White makes 34-foot three point jumper (Sam Hauser assists)NO 4 – 9 BOS · BOS 93% → 95% +2BOS 93% → 95%+2 pts
- Q19:27Jordan Poole makes 29-foot running pullup jump shotNO 7 – 9 BOS · NO 5% → 7% +2NO 5% → 7%+2 pts
- Q17:00Sam Hauser makes 26-foot three point jumper (Neemias Queta assists)NO 9 – 16 BOS · BOS 94% → 96% +2BOS 94% → 96%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 92%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -18.5
- ML NO +1100 / BOS -2100
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -13
- BOS 89%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 89.4%, market 92.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -1145
- NO +1145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 104.5 – 123.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1387 | 1681 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −65 | +3 | NO: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | NO crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +370 Elo | BOS 89.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 86.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 86.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 92.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30115.4 | Points scored | 114.522nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30119.6 | Points allowed | 107.01st of 30 |
| 21st of 30−4.2 | Margin | +7.54th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 118.02nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.2 | Defense rating | 110.24th of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.2 | Pace | 96.730th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 25th of 309–30 | Road vs home | 28–116th of 30 |
| 12th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149324th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301387 | Elo rating | 16813rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 44–36 | 47–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 13–4 | 33–24 |
| Underdog | 31–32 | 14–9 |
| Overs–unders | 39–41 | 29–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 0–5 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.