Charlotte Hornets at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints36
- LaMelo BallAssists6
- Miles BridgesRebounds12
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints35
- Jayson TatumAssists4
- Jaylen BrownRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–113
- Q40.4shot clock turnover102–113
- Q424.4shot clock turnover102–113
- Q448.5Ryan Kalkbrenner makes dunk (Kon Knueppel assists)102–113
- Q454.2Payton Pritchard personal foul100–113
- Q41:04Derrick White makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot100–113
- Q41:15Grant Williams enters the game for Miles Bridges100–110
- Q41:15Celtics offensive team rebound100–110
- Q41:15Jaylen Brown misses technical free throw100–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:04Grant Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)CHA 87 – 80 BOS · CHA 58% → 69% +11CHA 58% → 69%+11 pts
- Q31:44Payton Pritchard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Neemias Queta assists)CHA 87 – 83 BOS · BOS 31% → 42% +11BOS 31% → 42%+11 pts
- Q31:13Payton Pritchard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Baylor Scheierman assists)CHA 87 – 86 BOS · BOS 42% → 53% +12BOS 42% → 53%+12 pts
- Q48:52Kon Knueppel makes 29-foot three pointer (Sion James assists)CHA 94 – 96 BOS · CHA 22% → 35% +12CHA 22% → 35%+12 pts
- Q47:21Payton Pritchard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)CHA 94 – 101 BOS · BOS 75% → 86% +11BOS 75% → 86%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -4.5
- ML CHA +164 / BOS -198
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -4
- BOS 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 66.2%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- BOS -175
- CHA +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 108.5 – 113.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1608 | 1682 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +60 | +54 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +116 Elo | BOS 66.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 66.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 66.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30116.5 | Points scored | 114.621st of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.3 | Points allowed | 107.01st of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.2 | Margin | +7.64th of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.8 | Offense rating | 118.02nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 110.04th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.3 | Pace | 96.930th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 30 |
| 8th of 3022–17 | Road vs home | 27–116th of 30 |
| 30th of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 149029th of 30 |
| 8th of 301608 | Elo rating | 16823rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+60 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 50–29 | 46–32 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 23–12 | 32–24 |
| Underdog | 27–17 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 32–47 | 28–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 2–7 BOS in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Mar 29BOS 114 @ CHA 99Picked CHA 55%Miss
- Mar 4CHA 118 @ BOS 89Picked BOS 69%Miss
- Apr 13CHA 86 @ BOS 93Picked BOS 81%Hit
- Apr 11CHA 94 @ BOS 130Picked BOS 93%Hit
- Nov 2BOS 113 @ CHA 103Picked BOS 81%Hit
- Nov 1BOS 124 @ CHA 109Picked BOS 81%Hit
- Apr 12CHA 98 @ BOS 131Picked BOS 64%Hit
- Apr 1BOS 118 @ CHA 104Picked BOS 85%Hit