Toronto Raptors at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Ja'Kobe WalterPoints16
- Scottie BarnesAssists8
- Scottie BarnesRebounds6
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints26
- Jayson TatumAssists7
- Jayson TatumRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–115
- Q422.1shot clock turnover101–115
- Q446.3Jamison Battle makes 14-foot turnaround jump shot101–115
- Q41:08Payton Pritchard makes free throw 2 of 299–115
- Q41:08Gradey Dick enters the game for Ja'Kobe Walter99–114
- Q41:08Jonathan Mogbo enters the game for Jamal Shead99–114
- Q41:08Alijah Martin enters the game for RJ Barrett99–114
- Q41:08Trayce Jackson-Davis enters the game for Scottie Barnes99–114
- Q41:08Jamison Battle enters the game for Brandon Ingram99–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:46Derrick White makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)TOR 42 – 45 BOS · BOS 72% → 78% +7BOS 72% → 78%+7 pts
- Q35:16RJ Barrett makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)TOR 67 – 69 BOS · TOR 19% → 26% +8TOR 19% → 26%+8 pts
- Q33:36Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)TOR 73 – 75 BOS · TOR 19% → 27% +8TOR 19% → 27%+8 pts
- Q32:04Jaylen Brown makes 22-foot three point step back jumpshotTOR 75 – 78 BOS · BOS 66% → 76% +10BOS 66% → 76%+10 pts
- Q411:42Payton Pritchard makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)TOR 77 – 83 BOS · BOS 76% → 84% +9BOS 76% → 84%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -9.5
- ML TOR +330 / BOS -425
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -8
- BOS 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 78.7%, market 77.7%
- Fair odds
- BOS -348
- TOR +348 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 106.0 – 115.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1678 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +25 | +53 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | TOR crossed 1 time zone and BOS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +227 Elo | BOS 78.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 75.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 75.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 77.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30114.5 | Points scored | 114.621st of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.1 | Points allowed | 107.11st of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.4 | Margin | +7.54th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.6 | Offense rating | 118.02nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 110.14th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.2 | Pace | 96.930th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 30 |
| 8th of 3022–17 | Road vs home | 26–116th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149027th of 30 |
| 16th of 301514 | Elo rating | 16783rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–37 | 45–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–23 | 31–24 |
| Underdog | 17–14 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 30–47 | 28–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 1–10 BOS in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.
- Jan 9TOR 117 @ BOS 125Picked BOS 75%Hit
- Dec 20BOS 112 @ TOR 96Picked TOR 53%Miss
- Dec 7BOS 121 @ TOR 113Picked BOS 58%Hit
- Feb 25BOS 111 @ TOR 101Picked BOS 82%Hit
- Jan 15BOS 97 @ TOR 110Picked BOS 89%Miss
- Dec 31TOR 71 @ BOS 125Picked BOS 91%Hit
- Nov 16TOR 123 @ BOS 126Picked BOS 90%Hit
- Jan 15BOS 105 @ TOR 96Picked BOS 64%Hit