Boston Celtics at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints24
- Jayson TatumAssists8
- Jayson TatumRebounds13
Knicks- Josh HartPoints26
- Jalen BrunsonAssists10
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–112
- Q40.5Knicks defensive team rebound106–112
- Q42.0Payton Pritchard misses 31-foot three point jumper106–112
- Q415.2Josh Hart makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)106–112
- Q435.6Nikola Vucevic makes two point shot106–109
- Q435.6Nikola Vucevic offensive rebound104–109
- Q438.7Payton Pritchard misses 26-foot three point jumper104–109
- Q442.4Landry Shamet enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns104–109
- Q442.4Celtics Full timeout104–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:35Karl-Anthony Towns makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)BOS 98 – 99 NY · NY 40% → 60% +20NY 40% → 60%+20 pts
- Q43:36Baylor Scheierman makes 24-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)BOS 101 – 99 NY · BOS 40% → 62% +22BOS 40% → 62%+22 pts
- Q42:19Baylor Scheierman makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Neemias Queta assists)BOS 104 – 103 NY · BOS 30% → 57% +27BOS 30% → 57%+27 pts
- Q41:51Josh Hart makes layup (Jalen Brunson assists)BOS 104 – 105 NY · NY 41% → 62% +21NY 41% → 62%+21 pts
- Q442.9Josh Hart makes 26-foot three pointer (Mikal Bridges assists)BOS 104 – 109 NY · NY 81% → 98% +17NY 81% → 98%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- NY -3.5
- ML BOS +136 / NY -162
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -0.5
- NY 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.9 pts
- NY: Elo 48.4%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- NY -146
- BOS +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 103.5 – 107.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 210.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1689 | 1640 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +20 | +22 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +11 Elo | BOS 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 50.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30114.6 | Points scored | 116.910th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.9 | Points allowed | 110.45th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+7.7 | Margin | +6.55th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.0 | Offense rating | 117.63rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.0 | Defense rating | 111.17th of 30 |
| 30th of 3096.9 | Pace | 98.926th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 4th of 3026–14 | Road vs home | 28–94th of 30 |
| 27th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 149126th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301689 | Elo rating | 16404th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 47–32 | 40–40 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 33–24 | 32–32 |
| Underdog | 14–8 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders | 28–51 | 38–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 11–7 NY in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 18.
- Feb 8NY 111 @ BOS 89Picked BOS 58%Miss
- Dec 2NY 117 @ BOS 123Picked NY 51%Miss
- Oct 24BOS 95 @ NY 105Picked NY 61%Hit
- May 16BOS 81 @ NY 119PlayoffsPicked NY 57%Hit
- May 14NY 102 @ BOS 127PlayoffsPicked BOS 64%Hit
- May 12BOS 113 @ NY 121PlayoffsPicked BOS 68%Miss
- May 10BOS 115 @ NY 93PlayoffsPicked BOS 69%Hit
- May 7NY 91 @ BOS 90PlayoffsPicked BOS 80%Miss