New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints30
- Jalen BrunsonAssists13
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds12
Hawks- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerPoints36
- CJ McCollumAssists6
- Dyson DanielsRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–105
- Q40.0(00:00) [Knicks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)108–105
- Q41.2Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 2108–105
- Q41.2Mitchell Robinson enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns107–105
- Q41.2Onyeka Okongwu enters the game for Mouhamed Gueye107–105
- Q41.2Jalen Brunson makes free throw 1 of 2107–105
- Q41.2Jonathan Kuminga enters the game for Dyson Daniels106–105
- Q41.2Dyson Daniels personal take foul106–105
- Q41.5Karl-Anthony Towns enters the game for Landry Shamet106–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:15Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 23-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)NY 95 – 100 ATL · ATL 66% → 85% +18ATL 66% → 85%+18 pts
- Q42:20Jalen Brunson makes 26-foot three pointer (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)NY 100 – 100 ATL · NY 23% → 49% +26NY 23% → 49%+26 pts
- Q42:01Jalen Brunson makes running layupNY 102 – 100 ATL · NY 49% → 69% +19NY 49% → 69%+19 pts
- Q41:54CJ McCollum makes 5-foot driving floating jump shotNY 102 – 102 ATL · ATL 30% → 51% +20ATL 30% → 51%+20 pts
- Q429.8Jalen Brunson makes 18-foot step back jumpshotNY 104 – 102 ATL · NY 50% → 85% +35NY 50% → 85%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -1.5
- ML NY +102 / ATL -122
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -1
- ATL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 53.2%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -111
- NY +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 112.5 – 114.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1634 | 1581 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +16 | +55 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +23 Elo | ATL 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 50.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30117.0 | Points scored | 118.66th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 115.918th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.6 | Margin | +2.711th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.7 | Offense rating | 114.212th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 111.610th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.9 | Pace | 103.45th of 30 |
| 11th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 30 |
| 13th of 3021–19 | Road vs home | 23–1614th of 30 |
| 28th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 149322nd of 30 |
| 5th of 301634 | Elo rating | 158111th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 39–40 | 43–35 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 32–32 | 22–19 |
| Underdog | 7–8 | 21–16 |
| Overs–unders | 38–41 | 39–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 6–4 ATL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.
- Jan 2ATL 111 @ NY 99Picked NY 62%Miss
- Dec 27NY 128 @ ATL 125Picked NY 66%Hit
- Apr 5NY 121 @ ATL 105Picked NY 53%Hit
- Feb 12ATL 148 @ NY 149Picked NY 73%Hit
- Jan 20ATL 110 @ NY 119Picked NY 72%Hit
- Dec 11ATL 108 @ NY 100Picked NY 75%Miss
- Nov 6NY 116 @ ATL 121Picked NY 72%Miss
- Mar 5ATL 116 @ NY 100Picked NY 61%Miss