Atlanta Hawks at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- CJ McCollumPoints25
- CJ McCollumAssists7
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds11
Nets- Nic ClaxtonPoints16
- Nolan TraoreAssists4
- Chaney JohnsonRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game141–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter141–107
- Q44.2Ben Saraf bad pass
turnover (Keaton Wallace steals)141–107
- Q413.1Caleb Houstan makes 9-foot turnaround jump shot (Asa Newell assists)141–107
- Q426.6Keaton Wallace defensive rebound139–107
- Q430.1Trevon Scott misses driving floating jump shot139–107
- Q443.9Drake Powell defensive rebound139–107
- Q443.9Buddy Hield misses 21-foot running jump shot139–107
- Q446.3Christian Koloko defensive rebound139–107
- Q449.7Ben Saraf misses driving layup139–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:38Onyeka Okongwu makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 3 – 0 BKN · ATL 91% → 93% +2ATL 91% → 93%+2 pts
- Q210:59Malachi Smith makes 25-foot three point jumper (Chaney Johnson assists)ATL 35 – 31 BKN · BKN 6% → 8% +2BKN 6% → 8%+2 pts
- Q29:49Chaney Johnson makes 5-foot two point shot (Ziaire Williams assists)ATL 36 – 33 BKN · BKN 7% → 9% +2BKN 7% → 9%+2 pts
- Q29:39Jonathan Kuminga makes 25-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)ATL 39 – 33 BKN · ATL 91% → 93% +3ATL 91% → 93%+3 pts
- Q32:42Malachi Smith makes 24-foot running jump shot (Ben Saraf assists)ATL 88 – 78 BKN · BKN 2% → 5% +2BKN 2% → 5%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 91%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -16.5
- ML ATL -1800 / BKN +1000
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 89%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -12.5
- ATL 88%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 88.2%, market 91.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -1042
- BKN +1042 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 121.0 – 104.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1577 | 1298 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +52 | −54 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +349 Elo | ATL 88.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 89.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 89.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 91.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.3 | Points scored | 106.030th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.0 | Points allowed | 115.516th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.3 | Margin | −9.428th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.9 | Offense rating | 107.030th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 116.525th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.4 | Pace | 98.727th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 8th of 3021–17 | Road vs home | 10–2730th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15122nd of 30 |
| 11th of 301577 | Elo rating | 129828th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 42–35 | 36–40 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–19 | 5–1 |
| Underdog | 21–16 | 31–39 |
| Overs–unders | 38–39 | 33–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 6–4 BKN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Mar 12BKN 97 @ ATL 108Picked ATL 89%Hit
- Feb 22BKN 104 @ ATL 115Picked ATL 77%Hit
- Oct 29ATL 117 @ BKN 112Picked ATL 73%Hit
- Apr 10ATL 133 @ BKN 109Picked ATL 84%Hit
- Mar 16ATL 114 @ BKN 122Picked ATL 67%Miss
- Oct 23BKN 116 @ ATL 120Picked ATL 71%Hit
- Mar 2ATL 102 @ BKN 114Picked BKN 56%Hit
- Feb 29ATL 97 @ BKN 124Picked BKN 50%Hit