Denver Nuggets at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Julian StrawtherPoints25
- Jalen PickettAssists6
- David RoddyRebounds13
Spurs- De'Aaron FoxPoints24
- Stephon CastleAssists9
- Stephon CastleRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–118
- Q418.0shot clock turnover128–118
- Q441.2Curtis Jones defensive rebound128–118
- Q444.8Keldon Johnson misses 28-foot three point jumper128–118
- Q447.3Julian Strawther makes 1-foot running dunk128–118
- Q449.2Julian Strawther defensive rebound126–118
- Q449.2De'Aaron Fox misses 23-foot three point jumper126–118
- Q452.2Devin Vassell offensive rebound126–118
- Q455.6De'Aaron Fox misses 23-foot three point jumper126–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:25Stephon Castle makes 27-foot three point jumper (Carter Bryant assists)DEN 94 – 85 SA · SA 22% → 32% +10SA 22% → 32%+10 pts
- Q343.8Stephon Castle makes 26-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)DEN 96 – 88 SA · SA 24% → 34% +10SA 24% → 34%+10 pts
- Q329.6Jalen Pickett makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotDEN 99 – 88 SA · DEN 66% → 77% +10DEN 66% → 77%+10 pts
- Q37.8Harrison Barnes makes 23-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)DEN 99 – 91 SA · SA 23% → 33% +10SA 23% → 33%+10 pts
- Q48:58Harrison Barnes makes 22-foot running jump shot (De'Aaron Fox assists)DEN 107 – 100 SA · SA 19% → 31% +11SA 19% → 31%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- SA -9.5
- ML DEN +340 / SA -440
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -5
- SA 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.9 pts
- SA: Elo 69.3%, market 78.2%
- Fair odds
- SA -359
- DEN +359 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 113.0 – 122.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1648 | 1709 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −47 | −15 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +142 Elo | SA 69.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 65.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 78.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30122.0 | Points scored | 119.83rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 111.58th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.1 | Margin | +8.32nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.3 | Offense rating | 117.44th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.2 | Defense rating | 109.33rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.2 | Pace | 101.714th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 9–12nd of 30 |
| 5th of 3025–15 | Road vs home | 32–72nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 149720th of 30 |
| 5th of 301648 | Elo rating | 17092nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–38 | 48–34 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 26–31 | 34–28 |
| Underdog | 17–7 | 14–6 |
| Overs–unders | 50–31 | 35–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 6–4 SA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.
- Apr 4SA 134 @ DEN 136Picked SA 53%Miss
- Mar 12DEN 136 @ SA 131Picked SA 58%Miss
- Nov 28SA 139 @ DEN 136Picked DEN 71%Miss
- Apr 2SA 113 @ DEN 106Picked DEN 54%Miss
- Jan 4DEN 122 @ SA 111Picked DEN 57%Hit
- Jan 3SA 113 @ DEN 110Picked DEN 67%Miss
- Apr 12DEN 120 @ SA 121Picked DEN 64%Miss
- Apr 2SA 105 @ DEN 110Picked DEN 74%Hit