Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Cooper FlaggPoints33
- Ryan NembhardAssists7
- Dwight PowellRebounds11
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints40
- De'Aaron FoxAssists10
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–139
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–139
- Q46.5Mavericks defensive team rebound120–139
- Q46.5Keldon Johnson misses 28-foot three point jumper120–139
- Q430.6Ryan Nembhard makes driving layup (Dwight Powell assists)120–139
- Q445.9Jordan McLaughlin makes 25-foot three point jumper (Keldon Johnson assists)118–139
- Q41:02Jordan McLaughlin defensive rebound118–136
- Q41:05Tyler Smith misses 23-foot three point jumper118–136
- Q41:26Harrison Barnes makes two point shot118–136
- Q41:45Carter Bryant defensive rebound118–134
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:47Khris Middleton makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ryan Nembhard assists)DAL 63 – 62 SA · DAL 12% → 17% +5DAL 12% → 17%+5 pts
- Q311:36Ryan Nembhard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dwight Powell assists)DAL 68 – 68 SA · DAL 11% → 16% +5DAL 11% → 16%+5 pts
- Q310:25De'Aaron Fox makes 22-foot three point jumper (Victor Wembanyama assists)DAL 70 – 73 SA · SA 83% → 88% +5SA 83% → 88%+5 pts
- Q39:21Max Christie makes 23-foot running jump shot (Cooper Flagg assists)DAL 75 – 75 SA · DAL 12% → 17% +5DAL 12% → 17%+5 pts
- Q37:40De'Aaron Fox makes 1-foot dunk (Dylan Harper assists)DAL 81 – 81 SA · SA 77% → 82% +5SA 77% → 82%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 92%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- SA -18.5
- ML DAL +1100 / SA -2100
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 92%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -17
- SA 94%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- SA: Elo 94.2%, market 92.0%
- Fair odds
- SA -1145
- DAL +1145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 109.0 – 127.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1343 | 1707 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −16 | +54 | DAL: Missing Naji Marshall −7 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +483 Elo | SA 94.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 92.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 92.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 92.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30113.6 | Points scored | 119.53rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30119.3 | Points allowed | 111.47th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.7 | Margin | +8.22nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30108.8 | Offense rating | 117.24th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 109.23rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.5 | Pace | 101.713th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 9–12nd of 30 |
| 24th of 3010–29 | Road vs home | 31–72nd of 30 |
| 11th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 26th of 301343 | Elo rating | 17072nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−16 Elo- Naji Marshall left hip injury−7 Elo
Spurs
+54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–45 | 47–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–15 | 33–28 |
| Underdog | 27–30 | 14–6 |
| Overs–unders | 35–45 | 34–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 7–4 SA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.
- Feb 7DAL 125 @ SA 138Picked SA 79%Hit
- Feb 5SA 135 @ DAL 123Picked SA 73%Hit
- Oct 22SA 125 @ DAL 92Picked DAL 61%Miss
- Mar 12DAL 116 @ SA 126Picked SA 68%Hit
- Mar 10DAL 133 @ SA 129Picked SA 69%Miss
- Nov 16SA 93 @ DAL 110Picked DAL 85%Hit
- Oct 24SA 109 @ DAL 120Picked DAL 76%Hit
- Mar 19DAL 113 @ SA 107Picked DAL 68%Hit