Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints27
- Julius RandleAssists6
- Julius RandleRebounds9
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints27
- Nikola JokicAssists16
- Nikola JokicRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–125
- Q411.2Nikola Jokic defensive rebound113–125
- Q414.8Terrence Shannon Jr. misses two point shot113–125
- Q420.3Julian Strawther enters the game for Jamal Murray113–125
- Q420.3Nikola Jokic lost ball turnover (Joan Beringer steals)113–125
- Q420.3Joan Beringer vs. Nikola Jokic (Terrence Shannon Jr. gains possession)113–125
- Q444.3Terrence Shannon Jr. makes 18-foot step back jumpshot113–125
- Q454.0Nikola Jokic makes 8-foot floating jump shot (Cameron Johnson assists)111–125
- Q41:15Joan Beringer lost ball turnover (Christian Braun steals)111–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:33Julius Randle makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jaden McDaniels assists)MIN 3 – 0 DEN · MIN 20% → 24% +5MIN 20% → 24%+5 pts
- Q110:26Julius Randle makes 26-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)MIN 6 – 4 DEN · MIN 19% → 23% +5MIN 19% → 23%+5 pts
- Q27:09Naz Reid makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)MIN 40 – 42 DEN · MIN 16% → 21% +5MIN 16% → 21%+5 pts
- Q25:22Spencer Jones makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)MIN 42 – 47 DEN · DEN 79% → 84% +5DEN 79% → 84%+5 pts
- Q21.0Nikola Jokic makes 29-foot three point jumper (Cameron Johnson assists)MIN 51 – 60 DEN · DEN 85% → 90% +5DEN 85% → 90%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -11.5
- ML MIN +390 / DEN -520
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -3.5
- DEN 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.8 pts
- DEN: Elo 64.6%, market 80.4%
- Fair odds
- DEN -411
- MIN +411 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 107.5 – 119.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1613 | 1621 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −41 | +19 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +105 Elo | DEN 64.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 64.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 64.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 80.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.0 | Points scored | 122.11st of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.6 | Points allowed | 116.921st of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.4 | Margin | +5.17th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.6 | Offense rating | 120.31st of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 115.321st of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.4 | Pace | 100.220th of 30 |
| 17th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 30 |
| 8th of 3023–18 | Road vs home | 28–137th of 30 |
| 29th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 149522nd of 30 |
| 8th of 301613 | Elo rating | 16216th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–46 | 45–41 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 27–34 | 27–33 |
| Underdog | 13–12 | 18–8 |
| Overs–unders | 39–47 | 52–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 14–9 DEN in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 23.
- Apr 25DEN 96 @ MIN 112PlayoffsPicked DEN 52%Miss
- Apr 23DEN 96 @ MIN 113PlayoffsPicked MIN 50%Hit
- Apr 20MIN 119 @ DEN 114PlayoffsPicked DEN 72%Miss
- Apr 18MIN 105 @ DEN 116PlayoffsPicked DEN 70%Hit
- Mar 1MIN 117 @ DEN 108Picked DEN 56%Miss
- Dec 25MIN 138 @ DEN 142Picked MIN 51%Miss
- Nov 15DEN 123 @ MIN 112Picked DEN 52%Hit
- Oct 27DEN 127 @ MIN 114Picked DEN 67%Hit