Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints30
- Nikola JokicAssists9
- Nikola JokicRebounds15
Timberwolves- Ayo DosunmuPoints43
- Bones HylandAssists7
- Rudy GobertRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–112
- Q40.1Nuggets offensive team rebound96–112
- Q41.3Nikola Jokic ejected96–112
- Q41.3Julius Randle ejected96–112
- Q41.3Bruce Brown misses heave jump shot96–112
- Q41.3Jalen Pickett enters the game for Jamal Murray96–112
- Q41.3Cameron Johnson enters the game for Nikola Jokic96–112
- Q41.3DaRon Holmes II enters the game for Christian Braun96–112
- Q41.3Bones Hyland enters the game for Julius Randle96–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:21Terrence Shannon Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Naz Reid assists)DEN 49 – 46 MIN · MIN 32% → 40% +8MIN 32% → 40%+8 pts
- Q23.1Cameron Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Christian Braun assists)DEN 54 – 50 MIN · DEN 54% → 63% +9DEN 54% → 63%+9 pts
- Q38:31Ayo Dosunmu makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)DEN 63 – 63 MIN · MIN 39% → 49% +9MIN 39% → 49%+9 pts
- Q36:25Jamal Murray makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotDEN 69 – 65 MIN · DEN 54% → 64% +10DEN 54% → 64%+10 pts
- Q35:48Ayo Dosunmu makes 26-foot three pointer (Mike Conley assists)DEN 71 – 68 MIN · MIN 29% → 39% +9MIN 29% → 39%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -1.5
- ML DEN -118 / MIN -102
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -1.5
- DEN 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.2 pts
- DEN: Elo 56.9%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- DEN -107
- MIN +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 115.0 – 113.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1637 | 1596 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +39 | −4 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +48 Elo | DEN 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 54.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30122.1 | Points scored | 118.07th of 30 |
| 21st of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 114.612th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+5.1 | Margin | +3.410th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.3 | Offense rating | 114.612th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.3 | Defense rating | 111.38th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.2 | Pace | 102.410th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 5–517th of 30 |
| 4th of 3026–15 | Road vs home | 26–1510th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149228th of 30 |
| 6th of 301637 | Elo rating | 15969th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 45–40 | 39–46 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 27–32 | 27–34 |
| Underdog | 18–8 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders | 52–33 | 39–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 9–13 MIN in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 22.
- Apr 23DEN 96 @ MIN 113PlayoffsPicked MIN 50%Hit
- Apr 20MIN 119 @ DEN 114PlayoffsPicked DEN 72%Miss
- Apr 18MIN 105 @ DEN 116PlayoffsPicked DEN 70%Hit
- Mar 1MIN 117 @ DEN 108Picked DEN 56%Miss
- Dec 25MIN 138 @ DEN 142Picked MIN 51%Miss
- Nov 15DEN 123 @ MIN 112Picked DEN 52%Hit
- Oct 27DEN 127 @ MIN 114Picked DEN 67%Hit
- Apr 1MIN 140 @ DEN 139Picked DEN 53%Miss