Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints27
- Jamal MurrayAssists4
- Nikola JokicRebounds15
Timberwolves- Ayo DosunmuPoints25
- Ayo DosunmuAssists9
- Rudy GobertRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–113
- Q44.9Nuggets defensive team rebound96–113
- Q48.4Joan Beringer misses tip shot96–113
- Q49.0Joan Beringer offensive rebound96–113
- Q49.4Kyle Anderson misses 16-foot step back jumpshot96–113
- Q420.1Joan Beringer offensive rebound96–113
- Q424.1Mike Conley misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot96–113
- Q442.1Mike Conley enters the game for Julius Randle96–113
- Q442.1Joan Beringer enters the game for Ayo Dosunmu96–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:48Donte DiVincenzo makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)DEN 4 – 10 MIN · MIN 57% → 63% +6MIN 57% → 63%+6 pts
- Q11:42Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumperDEN 9 – 18 MIN · DEN 24% → 30% +6DEN 24% → 30%+6 pts
- Q210:04Naz Reid makes 22-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)DEN 15 – 31 MIN · MIN 79% → 84% +5MIN 79% → 84%+5 pts
- Q29:26Zeke Nnaji makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 20 – 32 MIN · DEN 17% → 22% +5DEN 17% → 22%+5 pts
- Q25:31Anthony Edwards makes 27-foot three pointer (Rudy Gobert assists)DEN 29 – 46 MIN · MIN 83% → 87% +5MIN 83% → 87%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -1.5
- ML DEN -108 / MIN -112
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 41%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -3
- MIN 39%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 38.9%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -102
- DEN +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 115.0 – 116.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1656 | 1577 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +41 | +6 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | DEN crossed 1 time zone and MIN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +78 Elo | DEN 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 58.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30122.1 | Points scored | 118.07th of 30 |
| 21st of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 114.612th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+5.1 | Margin | +3.410th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.3 | Offense rating | 114.612th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.3 | Defense rating | 111.38th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.2 | Pace | 102.410th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 5–517th of 30 |
| 4th of 3026–15 | Road vs home | 26–1510th of 30 |
| 24th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149325th of 30 |
| 4th of 301656 | Elo rating | 157711th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 45–39 | 38–46 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 27–32 | 26–34 |
| Underdog | 18–7 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders | 52–32 | 39–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 9–12 MIN in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 21.
- Apr 20MIN 119 @ DEN 114PlayoffsPicked DEN 72%Miss
- Apr 18MIN 105 @ DEN 116PlayoffsPicked DEN 70%Hit
- Mar 1MIN 117 @ DEN 108Picked DEN 56%Miss
- Dec 25MIN 138 @ DEN 142Picked MIN 51%Miss
- Nov 15DEN 123 @ MIN 112Picked DEN 52%Hit
- Oct 27DEN 127 @ MIN 114Picked DEN 67%Hit
- Apr 1MIN 140 @ DEN 139Picked DEN 53%Miss
- Mar 12MIN 115 @ DEN 95Picked DEN 53%Miss