Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints21
- Mike ConleyAssists6
- Julius RandleRebounds10
Spurs- Dylan HarperPoints18
- De'Aaron FoxAssists6
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–102
- Q40.0Spurs offensive team rebound104–102
- Q40.0Julian Champagnie misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot104–102
- Q46.2Dylan Harper defensive rebound104–102
- Q48.0Julius Randle misses 17-foot pullup jump shot104–102
- Q430.9Dylan Harper makes 1-foot running dunk104–102
- Q432.8Anthony Edwards bad pass
turnover (Devin Vassell steals)104–100
- Q434.4Naz Reid enters the game for Rudy Gobert104–100
- Q443.6Victor Wembanyama makes driving dunk (De'Aaron Fox assists)104–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:57Naz Reid makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jaden McDaniels assists)MIN 75 – 75 SA · MIN 25% → 36% +11MIN 25% → 36%+11 pts
- Q48:42Stephon Castle makes 26-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)MIN 81 – 82 SA · SA 53% → 67% +14SA 53% → 67%+14 pts
- Q48:10Julius Randle makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 84 – 84 SA · MIN 25% → 38% +13MIN 25% → 38%+13 pts
- Q44:42Mike Conley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaden McDaniels assists)MIN 95 – 86 SA · MIN 78% → 90% +12MIN 78% → 90%+12 pts
- Q430.9Dylan Harper makes 1-foot running dunkMIN 104 – 102 SA · SA 3% → 18% +15SA 3% → 18%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- SA -10.5
- ML MIN +310 / SA -395
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -7
- SA 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- SA: Elo 76.2%, market 76.6%
- Fair odds
- SA -327
- MIN +327 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 104.0 – 114.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1616 | 1707 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −5 | +71 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +202 Elo | SA 76.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 83.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 83.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 76.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.0 | Points scored | 119.73rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.6 | Points allowed | 111.78th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.4 | Margin | +8.13rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.6 | Offense rating | 117.44th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 109.53rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.4 | Pace | 101.714th of 30 |
| 17th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 8th of 3023–18 | Road vs home | 32–82nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 8th of 301616 | Elo rating | 17073rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+71 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–47 | 52–36 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 27–34 | 38–30 |
| Underdog | 14–13 | 14–6 |
| Overs–unders | 40–48 | 37–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 8–3 SA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.
- Jan 17MIN 123 @ SA 126Picked SA 64%Hit
- Jan 11SA 103 @ MIN 104Picked MIN 56%Hit
- Nov 30SA 112 @ MIN 125Picked MIN 64%Hit
- Mar 9SA 124 @ MIN 141Picked MIN 82%Hit
- Dec 29SA 110 @ MIN 112Picked MIN 67%Hit
- Dec 15MIN 106 @ SA 92Picked MIN 62%Hit
- Nov 2MIN 103 @ SA 113Picked MIN 60%Miss
- Feb 27SA 105 @ MIN 114Picked MIN 80%Hit