Portland Trail Blazers at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints30
- Jrue HolidayAssists11
- Deni AvdijaRebounds10
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints35
- De'Aaron FoxAssists8
- Stephon CastleRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–111
- Q412.8shot clock turnover98–111
- Q435.6Devin Vassell defensive rebound98–111
- Q438.4Sidy Cissoko misses 26-foot three point jumper98–111
- Q448.8Sidy Cissoko defensive rebound98–111
- Q452.8Devin Vassell misses free throw 2 of 298–111
- Q452.8Vit Krejci enters the game for Toumani Camara98–111
- Q452.8Kris Murray enters the game for Deni Avdija98–111
- Q452.8Sidy Cissoko enters the game for Jrue Holiday98–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:10Scoot Henderson makes 23-foot running jump shot (Deni Avdija assists)POR 12 – 9 SA · POR 17% → 21% +4POR 17% → 21%+4 pts
- Q310:28Scoot Henderson makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jrue Holiday assists)POR 55 – 59 SA · POR 11% → 16% +5POR 11% → 16%+5 pts
- Q39:07Scoot Henderson makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (Jrue Holiday assists)POR 59 – 61 SA · POR 17% → 21% +4POR 17% → 21%+4 pts
- Q37:12Julian Champagnie makes 26-foot running jump shot (Devin Vassell assists)POR 59 – 64 SA · SA 79% → 85% +6SA 79% → 85%+6 pts
- Q35:54Devin Vassell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)POR 61 – 69 SA · SA 85% → 90% +5SA 85% → 90%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- SA -11.5
- ML POR +500 / SA -700
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -9.5
- SA 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- SA: Elo 81.7%, market 84.0%
- Fair odds
- SA -525
- POR +525 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 105.5 – 117.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1692 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +52 | +58 | POR: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | POR crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +260 Elo | SA 81.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 76.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 77.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 84.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30115.5 | Points scored | 119.73rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30115.8 | Points allowed | 111.78th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +8.13rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.8 | Offense rating | 117.44th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 109.53rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30102.8 | Pace | 101.714th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 18th of 3018–23 | Road vs home | 32–82nd of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Elo rating | 16923rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 44–38 | 48–35 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–17 | 34–29 |
| Underdog | 24–21 | 14–6 |
| Overs–unders | 43–39 | 36–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 3–7 SA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Apr 8POR 101 @ SA 112Picked SA 58%Hit
- Jan 3POR 115 @ SA 110Picked SA 73%Miss
- Nov 26SA 115 @ POR 102Picked SA 52%Hit
- Apr 6SA 109 @ POR 120Picked POR 58%Hit
- Dec 21POR 94 @ SA 114Picked SA 70%Hit
- Dec 13SA 118 @ POR 116Picked SA 58%Hit
- Nov 7POR 105 @ SA 118Picked SA 61%Hit
- Jan 26POR 100 @ SA 116Picked SA 56%Hit