Sacramento Kings at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Precious AchiuwaPoints27
- Devin CarterAssists8
- Precious AchiuwaRebounds11
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints25
- Deni AvdijaAssists10
- Donovan ClinganRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–122
- Q49.7Maxime Raynaud makes free throw 2 of 2110–122
- Q49.7Maxime Raynaud makes free throw 1 of 2109–122
- Q49.7Sidy Cissoko loose ball foul108–122
- Q49.7Kings offensive team rebound108–122
- Q410.9Precious Achiuwa misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot108–122
- Q424.3Kings defensive team rebound108–122
- Q426.2Caleb Love misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot108–122
- Q444.0Maxime Raynaud makes driving layup (Nique Clifford assists)108–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:05Toumani Camara makes 27-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)SAC 27 – 31 POR · POR 91% → 94% +2POR 91% → 94%+2 pts
- Q29:26Scoot Henderson makes 10-foot driving floating jump shotSAC 37 – 38 POR · POR 87% → 90% +2POR 87% → 90%+2 pts
- Q29:17Jrue Holiday makes 27-foot three point jumper (Shaedon Sharpe assists)SAC 37 – 41 POR · POR 90% → 93% +3POR 90% → 93%+3 pts
- Q33:17Toumani Camara makes 25-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)SAC 81 – 91 POR · POR 93% → 96% +3POR 93% → 96%+3 pts
- Q48:13Doug McDermott makes 27-foot three pointer (Precious Achiuwa assists)SAC 95 – 104 POR · SAC 2% → 4% +2SAC 2% → 4%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 93%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- POR -18.5
- ML SAC +1200 / POR -2400
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 90%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -9.5
- POR 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.9 pts
- POR: Elo 81.7%, market 92.6%
- Fair odds
- POR -1248
- SAC +1248 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 104.0 – 122.5 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1372 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −47 | +53 | SAC: Missing De'Andre Hunter −12 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · POR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +260 Elo | POR 81.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 90.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 90.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 92.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30111.0 | Points scored | 115.416th of 30 |
| 27th of 30121.0 | Points allowed | 115.816th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−10.0 | Margin | −0.419th of 30 |
| 26th of 30109.3 | Offense rating | 111.722nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.1 | Defense rating | 112.113th of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.1 | Pace | 102.98th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 29th of 307–33 | Road vs home | 23–1716th of 30 |
| 8th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301372 | Elo rating | 149617th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−47 Elo- De'Andre Hunter left eye−12 Elo
Trail Blazers
+53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–46 | 44–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 20–16 |
| Underdog | 31–41 | 24–21 |
| Overs–unders | 41–40 | 42–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 4–6 POR in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Jan 18POR 117 @ SAC 110Picked POR 52%Hit
- Dec 20POR 98 @ SAC 93Picked POR 61%Hit
- Dec 18SAC 133 @ POR 134Picked POR 74%Hit
- Mar 27POR 107 @ SAC 128Picked SAC 66%Hit
- Feb 6SAC 102 @ POR 108Picked SAC 52%Miss
- Nov 29SAC 106 @ POR 115Picked SAC 70%Miss
- Oct 28POR 98 @ SAC 111Picked SAC 85%Hit
- Apr 14POR 82 @ SAC 121Picked SAC 74%Hit