Portland Trail Blazers at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints22
- Jrue HolidayAssists7
- Toumani CamaraRebounds8
Spurs- De'Aaron FoxPoints21
- De'Aaron FoxAssists9
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game95–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter95–114
- Q40.5shot clock turnover95–114
- Q418.0Bismack Biyombo defensive rebound95–114
- Q426.5Yang Hansen misses 25-foot three point jumper95–114
- Q436.9Sidy Cissoko defensive rebound95–114
- Q438.7Lindy Waters III misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot95–114
- Q453.4Lindy Waters III defensive rebound95–114
- Q456.0Yang Hansen misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot95–114
- Q41:03Sidy Cissoko defensive rebound95–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:23Julian Champagnie makes 26-foot three point jumper (Victor Wembanyama assists)POR 2 – 7 SA · SA 84% → 88% +4SA 84% → 88%+4 pts
- Q19:37Julian Champagnie makes 25-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)POR 2 – 10 SA · SA 87% → 90% +3SA 87% → 90%+3 pts
- Q16:37Scoot Henderson makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotPOR 13 – 19 SA · POR 9% → 12% +3POR 9% → 12%+3 pts
- Q48:02Sidy Cissoko makes 25-foot three pointer (Donovan Clingan assists)POR 82 – 91 SA · POR 3% → 6% +4POR 3% → 6%+4 pts
- Q45:24De'Aaron Fox makes 28-foot three pointerPOR 88 – 100 SA · SA 96% → 98% +3SA 96% → 98%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- SA -10.5
- ML POR +425 / SA -575
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -9.5
- SA 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- SA: Elo 82.1%, market 81.7%
- Fair odds
- SA -447
- POR +447 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 104.5 – 115.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1702 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +43 | +58 | POR: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | −24 | POR crossed 2 time zones and SA crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +264 Elo | SA 82.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 77.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 78.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 81.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30115.5 | Points scored | 119.73rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30115.8 | Points allowed | 111.78th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +8.13rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.8 | Offense rating | 117.44th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 109.53rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30102.8 | Pace | 101.714th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 18th of 3018–23 | Road vs home | 32–82nd of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 19th of 301489 | Elo rating | 17022nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 45–41 | 51–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–17 | 37–30 |
| Underdog | 25–24 | 14–6 |
| Overs–unders | 44–42 | 37–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 4–10 SA in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 14.
- Apr 26SA 114 @ POR 93PlayoffsPicked SA 66%Hit
- Apr 24SA 120 @ POR 108PlayoffsPicked SA 53%Hit
- Apr 21POR 106 @ SA 103PlayoffsPicked SA 83%Miss
- Apr 19POR 98 @ SA 111PlayoffsPicked SA 84%Hit
- Apr 8POR 101 @ SA 112Picked SA 58%Hit
- Jan 3POR 115 @ SA 110Picked SA 73%Miss
- Nov 26SA 115 @ POR 102Picked SA 52%Hit
- Apr 6SA 109 @ POR 120Picked POR 58%Hit