San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints39
- Stephon CastleAssists12
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds15
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints32
- Anthony EdwardsAssists6
- Anthony EdwardsRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–108
- Q48.5Devin Vassell defensive rebound115–108
- Q410.7Jaden McDaniels misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot115–108
- Q416.8Dylan Harper makes free throw 2 of 2115–108
- Q416.8Dylan Harper makes free throw 1 of 2114–108
- Q416.8Naz Reid personal take foul113–108
- Q421.6Dylan Harper enters the game for Julian Champagnie113–108
- Q421.6Spurs Full timeout113–108
- Q423.9Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot turnaround jump shot (Ayo Dosunmu assists)113–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:03Julian Champagnie makes 22-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)SA 102 – 98 MIN · SA 61% → 77% +15SA 61% → 77%+15 pts
- Q45:40Julius Randle makes two point shotSA 102 – 100 MIN · MIN 23% → 33% +10MIN 23% → 33%+10 pts
- Q44:23Dylan Harper makes 2-foot layup (Victor Wembanyama assists)SA 104 – 100 MIN · SA 68% → 79% +11SA 68% → 79%+11 pts
- Q43:27Naz Reid makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)SA 106 – 103 MIN · MIN 10% → 24% +14MIN 10% → 24%+14 pts
- Q43:06Victor Wembanyama makes 24-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)SA 109 – 103 MIN · SA 76% → 91% +15SA 76% → 91%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- SA -5.5
- ML SA -218 / MIN +180
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -5
- SA 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- SA: Elo 69.4%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- SA -192
- MIN +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 111.0 – 105.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1710 | 1613 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +54 | −27 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +142 Elo | SA 69.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 72.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 72.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30119.7 | Points scored | 118.07th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 114.612th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+8.1 | Margin | +3.410th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.4 | Offense rating | 114.612th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 111.38th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.7 | Pace | 102.410th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–517th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3029–12 | Road vs home | 26–1510th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149129th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301710 | Elo rating | 16138th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 53–37 | 42–48 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 39–31 | 27–34 |
| Underdog | 14–6 | 15–14 |
| Overs–unders | 38–52 | 41–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 4–9 MIN in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 13.
- May 6MIN 95 @ SA 133PlayoffsPicked SA 78%Hit
- May 4MIN 104 @ SA 102PlayoffsPicked SA 77%Miss
- Jan 17MIN 123 @ SA 126Picked SA 64%Hit
- Jan 11SA 103 @ MIN 104Picked MIN 56%Hit
- Nov 30SA 112 @ MIN 125Picked MIN 64%Hit
- Mar 9SA 124 @ MIN 141Picked MIN 82%Hit
- Dec 29SA 110 @ MIN 112Picked MIN 67%Hit
- Dec 15MIN 106 @ SA 92Picked MIN 62%Hit