Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints12
- Jaden McDanielsAssists4
- Rudy GobertRebounds10
Spurs- Stephon CastlePoints21
- Dylan HarperAssists5
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game95–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter95–133
- Q43.9Kelly Olynyk defensive rebound95–133
- Q43.9Mason Plumlee blocks Joan Beringer 's 6-foot driving layup95–133
- Q413.0shot clock turnover95–133
- Q437.1Kyle Anderson personal foul95–133
- Q444.2Joan Beringer makes two point shot (Kyle Anderson assists)95–133
- Q452.7Joe Ingles defensive rebound93–133
- Q454.9Kelly Olynyk misses 27-foot three point jumper93–133
- Q41:07Joe Ingles makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Clark assists)93–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:33Naz Reid makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot (Jaden McDaniels assists)MIN 14 – 13 SA · MIN 22% → 26% +4MIN 22% → 26%+4 pts
- Q12:54Dylan Harper makes 6-foot turnaround jump shot (Keldon Johnson assists)MIN 14 – 17 SA · SA 77% → 80% +3SA 77% → 80%+3 pts
- Q130.7Anthony Edwards makes 26-foot three pointer (Rudy Gobert assists)MIN 17 – 21 SA · MIN 14% → 18% +4MIN 14% → 18%+4 pts
- Q17.3De'Aaron Fox makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotMIN 17 – 24 SA · SA 82% → 86% +4SA 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q210:18Naz Reid makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jaden McDaniels assists)MIN 22 – 28 SA · MIN 12% → 16% +4MIN 12% → 16%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- SA -10.5
- ML MIN +330 / SA -425
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -6.5
- SA 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- SA: Elo 74.0%, market 77.7%
- Fair odds
- SA -348
- MIN +348 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 103.5 – 114.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1625 | 1698 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −13 | +60 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +182 Elo | SA 74.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 79.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 78.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 77.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.0 | Points scored | 119.73rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.6 | Points allowed | 111.78th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.4 | Margin | +8.13rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.6 | Offense rating | 117.44th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 109.53rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.4 | Pace | 101.714th of 30 |
| 17th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 8th of 3023–18 | Road vs home | 32–82nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 7th of 301625 | Elo rating | 16983rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+60 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 42–47 | 52–37 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 27–34 | 38–31 |
| Underdog | 15–13 | 14–6 |
| Overs–unders | 40–49 | 37–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 9–3 SA in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.
- May 4MIN 104 @ SA 102PlayoffsPicked SA 77%Miss
- Jan 17MIN 123 @ SA 126Picked SA 64%Hit
- Jan 11SA 103 @ MIN 104Picked MIN 56%Hit
- Nov 30SA 112 @ MIN 125Picked MIN 64%Hit
- Mar 9SA 124 @ MIN 141Picked MIN 82%Hit
- Dec 29SA 110 @ MIN 112Picked MIN 67%Hit
- Dec 15MIN 106 @ SA 92Picked MIN 62%Hit
- Nov 2MIN 103 @ SA 113Picked MIN 60%Miss