Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints20
- Ayo DosunmuAssists4
- Julius RandleRebounds10
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints27
- Stephon CastleAssists6
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–126
- Q413.1Carter Bryant defensive rebound97–126
- Q415.1Julian Phillips misses 22-foot running jump shot97–126
- Q420.1Bones Hyland defensive rebound97–126
- Q421.7Joan Beringer blocks Bismack Biyombo 's 2-foot reverse layup97–126
- Q429.2Bismack Biyombo defensive rebound97–126
- Q431.1Joan Beringer misses free throw 2 of 297–126
- Q431.1Joan Beringer makes free throw 1 of 297–126
- Q431.1Bismack Biyombo personal foul96–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:02Jaden McDaniels makes 23-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)MIN 57 – 61 SA · MIN 15% → 21% +6MIN 15% → 21%+6 pts
- Q38:11Jaden McDaniels makes 11-foot pullup jump shot (Ayo Dosunmu assists)MIN 59 – 61 SA · MIN 21% → 26% +5MIN 21% → 26%+5 pts
- Q37:51Ayo Dosunmu makes two point shot (Jaden McDaniels assists)MIN 61 – 61 SA · MIN 26% → 32% +6MIN 26% → 32%+6 pts
- Q37:10Julian Champagnie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Victor Wembanyama assists)MIN 61 – 64 SA · SA 68% → 76% +8SA 68% → 76%+8 pts
- Q36:31Stephon Castle makes 2-foot two point shotMIN 61 – 66 SA · SA 76% → 81% +5SA 76% → 81%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- SA -10.5
- ML MIN +320 / SA -410
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -6.5
- SA 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- SA: Elo 74.2%, market 77.2%
- Fair odds
- SA -338
- MIN +338 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 104.0 – 114.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1620 | 1703 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −17 | +47 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +184 Elo | SA 74.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 72.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 72.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 77.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.0 | Points scored | 119.73rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.6 | Points allowed | 111.78th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.4 | Margin | +8.13rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.6 | Offense rating | 117.44th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 109.53rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.4 | Pace | 101.714th of 30 |
| 17th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 8th of 3023–18 | Road vs home | 32–82nd of 30 |
| 28th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 6th of 301620 | Elo rating | 17033rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–49 | 54–38 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 27–34 | 40–32 |
| Underdog | 16–15 | 14–6 |
| Overs–unders | 43–49 | 40–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 10–5 SA in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 15.
- May 10SA 109 @ MIN 114PlayoffsPicked SA 64%Miss
- May 8SA 115 @ MIN 108PlayoffsPicked SA 66%Hit
- May 6MIN 95 @ SA 133PlayoffsPicked SA 78%Hit
- May 4MIN 104 @ SA 102PlayoffsPicked SA 77%Miss
- Jan 17MIN 123 @ SA 126Picked SA 64%Hit
- Jan 11SA 103 @ MIN 104Picked MIN 56%Hit
- Nov 30SA 112 @ MIN 125Picked MIN 64%Hit
- Mar 9SA 124 @ MIN 141Picked MIN 82%Hit