Minnesota Timberwolves at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints45
- LaMelo BallAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds15
Heat- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints35
- Davion MitchellAssists11
- Bam AdebayoRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–106
- Q41.2Myron Gardner defensive rebound131–106
- Q41.2Jaylen Clark misses driving dunk131–106
- Q422.2Myron Gardner makes free throw 2 of 2131–106
- Q422.2Myron Gardner makes free throw 1 of 2131–105
- Q422.2Bones Hyland personal foul131–104
- Q430.1Bones Hyland makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Clark assists)131–104
- Q453.3Myron Gardner makes free throw 2 of 2128–104
- Q453.3Myron Gardner makes free throw 1 of 2128–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:41Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotMIN 47 – 43 MIA · MIN 52% → 59% +8MIN 52% → 59%+8 pts
- Q25:25Bobby Portis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)MIN 47 – 50 MIA · MIA 51% → 59% +8MIA 51% → 59%+8 pts
- Q24:46Terrence Shannon Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ayo Dosunmu assists)MIN 52 – 50 MIA · MIN 46% → 55% +8MIN 46% → 55%+8 pts
- Q24:12Terrence Shannon Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Joan Beringer assists)MIN 55 – 50 MIA · MIN 55% → 63% +8MIN 55% → 63%+8 pts
- Q22:18Jonathan Kuminga makes 22-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 60 – 54 MIA · MIN 58% → 66% +8MIN 58% → 66%+8 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Heat 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -1.5
- ML MIN -105 / MIA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -0.5
- MIA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- MIA: Elo 48.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIA -104
- MIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 121.0 – 122.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 243.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +40 | Worth 40 Elo in the NBA |
| Injuries | — | −16 | Key absences: Bam Adebayo |
| Elo ratings | MIN +8 Elo | MIN 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.0 | Points scored | 120.92nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.6 | Points allowed | 118.522nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.4 | Margin | +2.313th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.6 | Offense rating | 114.513th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 112.214th of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.4 | Pace | 105.31st of 30 |
| 17th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–517th of 30 |
| 8th of 3023–18 | Road vs home | 26–1510th of 30 |
| 27th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150212th of 30 |
| 8th of 301559 | Elo rating | 149618th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−73 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  MIN |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–51 | 46–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 27–34 | 22–18 |
| Underdog | 16–17 | 24–18 |
| Overs–unders | 45–49 | 47–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–1 MIA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.