Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints24
- Davion MitchellAssists11
- Bam AdebayoRebounds11
Raptors- Brandon IngramPoints38
- Brandon IngramAssists7
- Collin Murray-BoylesRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–128
- Q422.3Jahmir Young makes 14-foot two point shot114–128
- Q432.5Heat defensive team rebound112–128
- Q433.6A.J. Lawson misses free throw 2 of 2112–128
- Q433.6Raptors offensive team rebound112–128
- Q433.6A.J. Lawson misses free throw 1 of 2112–128
- Q433.6Vladislav Goldin loose ball foul112–128
- Q433.6Vladislav Goldin lost ball turnover112–128
- Q442.4Keshad Johnson defensive rebound112–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:56Brandon Ingram makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)MIA 45 – 51 TOR · TOR 66% → 73% +7TOR 66% → 73%+7 pts
- Q35:16Tyler Herro makes 28-foot running jump shot (Davion Mitchell assists)MIA 75 – 82 TOR · MIA 15% → 22% +7MIA 15% → 22%+7 pts
- Q34:41Ja'Kobe Walter makes 22-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)MIA 75 – 85 TOR · TOR 78% → 85% +7TOR 78% → 85%+7 pts
- Q34:26Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)MIA 78 – 85 TOR · MIA 15% → 22% +7MIA 15% → 22%+7 pts
- Q33:49Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)MIA 81 – 87 TOR · MIA 17% → 24% +8MIA 17% → 24%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -4.5
- ML MIA +142 / TOR -170
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -3
- TOR 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 62.0%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- TOR -152
- MIA +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 116.0 – 120.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +36 | +42 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +85 Elo | TOR 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 57.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30120.4 | Points scored | 114.422nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30118.5 | Points allowed | 111.99th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+2.0 | Margin | +2.511th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.9 | Offense rating | 113.515th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 111.06th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.4 | Pace | 100.220th of 30 |
| 20th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 19th of 3016–23 | Road vs home | 22–1715th of 30 |
| 10th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 150215th of 30 |
| 18th of 301483 | Elo rating | 152714th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 44–35 | 41–38 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–18 | 24–23 |
| Underdog | 24–17 | 17–15 |
| Overs–unders | 44–35 | 30–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 6–5 TOR in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.
- Apr 7MIA 95 @ TOR 121Picked TOR 56%Hit
- Dec 23TOR 112 @ MIA 91Picked MIA 66%Miss
- Dec 15TOR 106 @ MIA 96Picked MIA 62%Miss
- Feb 21MIA 120 @ TOR 111Picked MIA 60%Hit
- Dec 12TOR 104 @ MIA 114Picked MIA 81%Hit
- Dec 1MIA 116 @ TOR 119Picked MIA 63%Miss
- Nov 29TOR 111 @ MIA 121Picked MIA 74%Hit
- Apr 14TOR 103 @ MIA 118Picked MIA 86%Hit