Washington Wizards at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Will RileyPoints31
- Sharife CooperAssists7
- Justin ChampagnieRebounds10
Heat- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Points32
- Kasparas JakucionisAssists9
- Kel'el WareRebounds19
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game136–152
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter136–152
- Q41.7shot clock turnover136–152
- Q414.9Keshad Johnson offensive rebound136–152
- Q417.4Kel'el Ware misses free throw 2 of 2136–152
- Q417.4Kel'el Ware makes free throw 1 of 2136–152
- Q417.4Leaky Black shooting foul136–151
- Q417.4Kel'el Ware offensive rebound136–151
- Q417.4Kel'el Ware misses two point shot136–151
- Q417.4Kel'el Ware offensive rebound136–151
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:53Tre Johnson makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Bub Carrington assists)WSH 23 – 21 MIA · WSH 8% → 11% +3WSH 8% → 11%+3 pts
- Q13:27Andrew Wiggins makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)WSH 23 – 24 MIA · MIA 88% → 91% +3MIA 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q12:37Jaden Hardy makes 25-foot three point jumper (Sharife Cooper assists)WSH 28 – 26 MIA · WSH 9% → 12% +3WSH 9% → 12%+3 pts
- Q11:15Kel'el Ware makes 24-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)WSH 28 – 31 MIA · MIA 90% → 93% +3MIA 90% → 93%+3 pts
- Q211:44Jaden Hardy makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jamir Watkins assists)WSH 35 – 36 MIA · WSH 7% → 10% +3WSH 7% → 10%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 93%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -18.5
- ML WSH +1200 / MIA -2400
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 89%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -10.5
- MIA 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.4 pts
- MIA: Elo 84.1%, market 92.6%
- Fair odds
- MIA -1248
- WSH +1248 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 113.5 – 132.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 245.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1265 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −24 | −3 | WSH: Missing Tristan Vukcevic −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIA: Missing Tyler Herro −24 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +290 Elo | MIA 84.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 89.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 88.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 92.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30112.7 | Points scored | 120.42nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30124.3 | Points allowed | 118.222nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−11.6 | Margin | +2.213th of 30 |
| 28th of 30108.7 | Offense rating | 113.914th of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.9 | Defense rating | 111.712th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.3 | Pace | 105.41st of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 2–823rd of 30 |
| 30th of 306–32 | Road vs home | 24–1511th of 30 |
| 1st of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 15069th of 30 |
| 30th of 301265 | Elo rating | 149717th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−24 Elo- Tristan Vukcevic right knee contusion−6 Elo
Heat
−3 Elo- Tyler Herro personal−24 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–44 | 44–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 20–17 |
| Underdog | 30–41 | 24–16 |
| Overs–unders | 43–33 | 43–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–8 MIA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Mar 10WSH 129 @ MIA 150Picked MIA 89%Hit
- Feb 8MIA 132 @ WSH 101Picked MIA 83%Hit
- Apr 13WSH 119 @ MIA 118Picked MIA 75%Miss
- Mar 31MIA 120 @ WSH 94Picked MIA 78%Hit
- Mar 3WSH 90 @ MIA 106Picked MIA 74%Hit
- Nov 2MIA 118 @ WSH 98Picked MIA 78%Hit
- Mar 31MIA 119 @ WSH 107Picked MIA 68%Hit
- Mar 10WSH 110 @ MIA 108Picked MIA 79%Miss