Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Andrew WigginsPoints24
- Tyler HerroAssists6
- Bam AdebayoRebounds9
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints25
- Jamal SheadAssists11
- Scottie BarnesRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game95–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter95–121
- Q47.5Myron Gardner out of bounds lost ball turnover95–121
- Q417.2Gradey Dick makes free throw 2 of 295–121
- Q417.2Gradey Dick makes free throw 1 of 295–120
- Q417.2Myron Gardner personal foul95–119
- Q430.8Vladislav Goldin bad pass
turnover (A.J. Lawson steals)95–119
- Q433.0Vladislav Goldin offensive rebound95–119
- Q435.0Kasparas Jakucionis misses driving floating jump shot95–119
- Q442.7Gradey Dick makes running dunk (Jamison Battle assists)95–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:27Ja'Kobe Walter makes 24-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)MIA 21 – 22 TOR · TOR 51% → 58% +7TOR 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q12:52Ja'Kobe Walter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Collin Murray-Boyles assists)MIA 22 – 25 TOR · TOR 56% → 62% +7TOR 56% → 62%+7 pts
- Q115.6Immanuel Quickley makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotMIA 27 – 32 TOR · TOR 60% → 67% +7TOR 60% → 67%+7 pts
- Q210:53Kel'el Ware makes 27-foot running jump shot (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)MIA 30 – 32 TOR · MIA 33% → 40% +7MIA 33% → 40%+7 pts
- Q28:27Jamal Shead makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotMIA 36 – 39 TOR · TOR 55% → 63% +7TOR 55% → 63%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -2.5
- ML MIA +120 / TOR -142
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -1.5
- TOR 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 55.7%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -129
- MIA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 119.0 – 121.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +43 | +37 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +39 Elo | TOR 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30120.8 | Points scored | 114.422nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30118.4 | Points allowed | 112.19th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.3 | Margin | +2.213th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.2 | Offense rating | 113.515th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 111.28th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.5 | Pace | 100.220th of 30 |
| 19th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 19th of 3016–22 | Road vs home | 21–1716th of 30 |
| 11th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 150214th of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Elo rating | 151016th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 44–34 | 40–38 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–18 | 23–23 |
| Underdog | 24–16 | 17–15 |
| Overs–unders | 44–34 | 30–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 6–4 TOR in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.
- Dec 23TOR 112 @ MIA 91Picked MIA 66%Miss
- Dec 15TOR 106 @ MIA 96Picked MIA 62%Miss
- Feb 21MIA 120 @ TOR 111Picked MIA 60%Hit
- Dec 12TOR 104 @ MIA 114Picked MIA 81%Hit
- Dec 1MIA 116 @ TOR 119Picked MIA 63%Miss
- Nov 29TOR 111 @ MIA 121Picked MIA 74%Hit
- Apr 14TOR 103 @ MIA 118Picked MIA 86%Hit
- Apr 12TOR 103 @ MIA 125Picked MIA 80%Hit