Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Buddy HieldPoints31
- Keshon GilbertAssists9
- Asa NewellRebounds11
Heat- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Points26
- Tyler HerroAssists8
- Bam AdebayoRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–143
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–143
- Q414.7Trevor Keels makes two point shot (Jahmir Young assists)117–143
- Q419.1Vladislav Goldin defensive rebound117–141
- Q422.5Asa Newell misses layup117–141
- Q434.6Vladislav Goldin makes free throw 1 of 1117–141
- Q434.6Asa Newell shooting foul117–140
- Q434.6Vladislav Goldin makes 3-foot layup (Myron Gardner assists)117–140
- Q434.6Myron Gardner offensive rebound117–138
- Q438.7Trevor Keels misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot117–138
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:47Zaccharie Risacher makes 27-foot three point jumper (Keaton Wallace assists)ATL 7 – 9 MIA · ATL 15% → 19% +4ATL 15% → 19%+4 pts
- Q18:38Bam Adebayo makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)ATL 7 – 12 MIA · MIA 81% → 85% +4MIA 81% → 85%+4 pts
- Q310:32Corey Kispert makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tony Bradley assists)ATL 67 – 73 MIA · ATL 11% → 16% +5ATL 11% → 16%+5 pts
- Q37:43Davion Mitchell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)ATL 70 – 80 MIA · MIA 86% → 91% +5MIA 86% → 91%+5 pts
- Q35:09Davion Mitchell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)ATL 74 – 85 MIA · MIA 88% → 93% +4MIA 88% → 93%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -10.5
- ML ATL +360 / MIA -470
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -3.5
- MIA 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.8 pts
- MIA: Elo 63.3%, market 79.1%
- Fair odds
- MIA -379
- ATL +379 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 114.5 – 125.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1580 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −111 | +47 | ATL: Missing Nickeil Alexander-Walker −38, Dyson Daniels −33 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +95 Elo | MIA 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 68.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 68.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 79.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.5 | Points scored | 120.62nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.7 | Points allowed | 118.622nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.8 | Margin | +2.013th of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.2 | Offense rating | 114.313th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 112.214th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.3 | Pace | 105.31st of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 9th of 3022–18 | Road vs home | 25–1510th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150213th of 30 |
| 11th of 301580 | Elo rating | 148019th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−111 Elo- Nickeil Alexander-Walker sprained right toe−38 Elo
- Dyson Daniels sprained left big toe−33 Elo
Heat
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 44–37 | 45–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 23–20 | 21–18 |
| Underdog | 21–17 | 24–18 |
| Overs–unders | 40–41 | 46–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–7 MIA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.
- Feb 20MIA 128 @ ATL 97Picked MIA 57%Hit
- Feb 3ATL 127 @ MIA 115Picked MIA 52%Miss
- Dec 26MIA 126 @ ATL 111Picked ATL 57%Miss
- Mar 27ATL 112 @ MIA 122Picked MIA 53%Hit
- Feb 26ATL 109 @ MIA 131Picked MIA 58%Hit
- Feb 24MIA 86 @ ATL 98Picked ATL 55%Hit
- Dec 28MIA 110 @ ATL 120Picked MIA 51%Miss
- Apr 9MIA 117 @ ATL 111Picked MIA 61%Hit