Miami Heat at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Simone FontecchioPoints24
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Assists8
- Bam AdebayoRebounds11
Wizards- Bub CarringtonPoints30
- Sharife CooperAssists7
- Julian ReeseRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game140–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter140–117
- Q40.1shot clock turnover140–117
- Q422.2Myron Gardner defensive rebound140–117
- Q424.1Will Riley misses driving floating jump shot140–117
- Q435.7Anthony Gill defensive rebound140–117
- Q439.3Jahmir Young misses 14-foot jumper140–117
- Q451.8Anthony Gill makes free throw 2 of 2140–117
- Q451.8Myron Gardner enters the game for Pelle Larsson140–116
- Q451.8Anthony Gill makes free throw 1 of 2140–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:06Bub Carrington makes 12-foot pullup jump shotMIA 2 – 4 WSH · WSH 10% → 12% +2WSH 10% → 12%+2 pts
- Q18:54Bam Adebayo makes 23-foot three point jumper (Simone Fontecchio assists)MIA 5 – 4 WSH · MIA 88% → 91% +3MIA 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q18:30Andrew Wiggins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kel'el Ware assists)MIA 8 – 4 WSH · MIA 90% → 93% +2MIA 90% → 93%+2 pts
- Q15:32Bub Carrington makes 26-foot three point jumper (Julian Reese assists)MIA 15 – 16 WSH · WSH 9% → 12% +3WSH 9% → 12%+3 pts
- Q33:08Bam Adebayo makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)MIA 95 – 82 WSH · MIA 95% → 97% +2MIA 95% → 97%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 90%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -15.5
- ML MIA -1600 / WSH +900
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 89%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -9.5
- MIA 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- MIA: Elo 82.1%, market 90.4%
- Fair odds
- MIA -941
- WSH +941 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 129.5 – 114.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 243.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1226 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | WSH and MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +16 | −36 | MIA: Missing Tyler Herro −18, Norman Powell −13 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · WSH: Missing Tristan Vukcevic −12, Justin Champagnie −12, Jaden Hardy −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +264 Elo | MIA 82.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 89.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 88.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 90.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30120.3 | Points scored | 112.825th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30118.6 | Points allowed | 124.629th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.8 | Margin | −11.830th of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.0 | Offense rating | 108.629th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.2 | Defense rating | 120.029th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.3 | Pace | 103.45th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 19th of 3016–24 | Road vs home | 11–2930th of 30 |
| 7th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15083rd of 30 |
| 19th of 301474 | Elo rating | 122630th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+16 Elo- Tyler Herro right foot−18 Elo
- Norman Powell right groin−13 Elo
Wizards
−36 Elo- Tristan Vukcevic right knee contusion−12 Elo
- Justin Champagnie right knee contusion−12 Elo
- Jaden Hardy did not dress−5 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 44–36 | 33–47 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 20–18 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 24–18 | 31–44 |
| Overs–unders | 45–35 | 45–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 9–2 WSH in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.
- Apr 4WSH 136 @ MIA 152Picked MIA 93%Hit
- Mar 10WSH 129 @ MIA 150Picked MIA 89%Hit
- Feb 8MIA 132 @ WSH 101Picked MIA 83%Hit
- Apr 13WSH 119 @ MIA 118Picked MIA 75%Miss
- Mar 31MIA 120 @ WSH 94Picked MIA 78%Hit
- Mar 3WSH 90 @ MIA 106Picked MIA 74%Hit
- Nov 2MIA 118 @ WSH 98Picked MIA 78%Hit
- Mar 31MIA 119 @ WSH 107Picked MIA 68%Hit