Washington Wizards at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Will RileyPoints30
- Will RileyAssists6
- Julian ReeseRebounds16
Nets- Nolan TraorePoints23
- Nolan TraoreAssists7
- Trevon ScottRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–121
- Q48.8Will Riley makes 2-foot two point shot115–121
- Q414.0Jalen Wilson makes free throw 2 of 2113–121
- Q414.0Jalen Wilson makes free throw 1 of 2113–120
- Q414.0Will Riley personal foul113–119
- Q417.8Will Riley makes driving layup113–119
- Q423.2Nolan Traore makes free throw 2 of 2111–119
- Q423.2Nolan Traore makes free throw 1 of 2111–118
- Q423.2Jamir Watkins personal take foul111–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:50Jamir Watkins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaden Hardy assists)WSH 105 – 101 BKN · WSH 55% → 75% +20WSH 55% → 75%+20 pts
- Q42:56Nolan Traore makes 24-foot three point jumper (Trevon Scott assists)WSH 105 – 105 BKN · BKN 28% → 52% +24BKN 28% → 52%+24 pts
- Q42:33Drake Powell makes two point shotWSH 105 – 107 BKN · BKN 52% → 69% +17BKN 52% → 69%+17 pts
- Q41:49Leaky Black makes 23-foot three point jumper (Julian Reese assists)WSH 108 – 109 BKN · WSH 13% → 38% +24WSH 13% → 38%+24 pts
- Q41:32Jalen Wilson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nolan Traore assists)WSH 108 – 112 BKN · BKN 63% → 89% +26BKN 63% → 89%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nets 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- BKN -3.5
- ML WSH +136 / BKN -162
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -3.5
- BKN 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- BKN: Elo 63.6%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- BKN -146
- WSH +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 113.5 – 117.0 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1261 | 1294 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −7 | −19 | WSH: Missing Tristan Vukcevic −11, Justin Champagnie −9 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +97 Elo | BKN 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 65.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 65.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BKN 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30113.0 | Points scored | 106.130th of 30 |
| 29th of 30124.7 | Points allowed | 115.816th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−11.7 | Margin | −9.728th of 30 |
| 28th of 30108.9 | Offense rating | 106.930th of 30 |
| 30th of 30120.1 | Defense rating | 116.825th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.4 | Pace | 98.727th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 30th of 306–33 | Road vs home | 10–2830th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 15141st of 30 |
| 30th of 301261 | Elo rating | 129428th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−7 Elo- Tristan Vukcevic right knee contusion−11 Elo
- Justin Champagnie right knee contusion−9 Elo
Nets
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–44 | 36–41 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 5–1 |
| Underdog | 31–41 | 31–40 |
| Overs–unders | 44–33 | 34–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–6 BKN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.
- Feb 7WSH 113 @ BKN 127Picked BKN 72%Hit
- Jan 2BKN 99 @ WSH 119Picked WSH 57%Hit
- Nov 16BKN 129 @ WSH 106Picked WSH 55%Miss
- Mar 29BKN 115 @ WSH 112Picked WSH 54%Miss
- Feb 24BKN 99 @ WSH 107Picked BKN 56%Miss
- Feb 5WSH 119 @ BKN 102Picked BKN 66%Miss
- Mar 27BKN 122 @ WSH 119Picked WSH 53%Miss
- Dec 29BKN 104 @ WSH 110Picked BKN 59%Miss