Chicago Bulls at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Tre JonesPoints31
- Patrick WilliamsAssists4
- Leonard MillerRebounds11
Wizards- Will RileyPoints23
- Will RileyAssists7
- Julian ReeseRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–108
- Q414.6Patrick Williams defensive rebound119–108
- Q416.3Will Riley misses 21-foot step back jumpshot119–108
- Q432.7Rob Dillingham makes 5-foot turnaround jump shot119–108
- Q450.9Will Riley makes driving layup117–108
- Q459.2Leaky Black defensive rebound117–106
- Q41:01Collin Sexton misses driving layup117–106
- Q41:16Will Riley makes driving layup117–106
- Q41:24Will Riley defensive rebound117–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:45Sharife Cooper makes 25-foot running jump shot (Jamir Watkins assists)CHI 43 – 42 WSH · WSH 24% → 31% +7WSH 24% → 31%+7 pts
- Q39:04Collin Sexton makes 24-foot running jump shot (Leonard Miller assists)CHI 63 – 55 WSH · CHI 78% → 84% +6CHI 78% → 84%+6 pts
- Q37:34Will Riley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bub Carrington assists)CHI 65 – 61 WSH · WSH 18% → 25% +7WSH 18% → 25%+7 pts
- Q35:54Bub Carrington makes 30-foot running pullup jump shot (Will Riley assists)CHI 69 – 67 WSH · WSH 22% → 31% +8WSH 22% → 31%+8 pts
- Q34:03Jamir Watkins makes 27-foot three point jumper (Will Riley assists)CHI 71 – 70 WSH · WSH 25% → 34% +9WSH 25% → 34%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -6.5
- ML CHI -285 / WSH +230
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -3.5
- CHI 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- CHI: Elo 63.1%, market 71.0%
- Fair odds
- CHI -244
- WSH +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 128.0 – 121.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 249.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1365 | 1234 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −8 | −6 | CHI: Missing Anfernee Simons −3, Zach Collins −3 · WSH: Missing Tristan Vukcevic −10, Jaden Hardy −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +93 Elo | CHI 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 66.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 66.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 71.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 112.925th of 30 |
| 28th of 30121.3 | Points allowed | 124.729th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−5.0 | Margin | −11.830th of 30 |
| 24th of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 108.729th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.1 | Defense rating | 120.129th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.8 | Pace | 103.45th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3012–27 | Road vs home | 11–2829th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 15102nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301365 | Elo rating | 123430th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−8 Elo- Anfernee Simons wrist injury−3 Elo
- Zach Collins toe surgery−3 Elo
Wizards
−6 Elo- Tristan Vukcevic right knee contusion−10 Elo
- Jaden Hardy low back muscle spasms−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–42 | 33–46 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–21 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 29–21 | 31–43 |
| Overs–unders | 36–43 | 45–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 7–2 WSH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Apr 7CHI 129 @ WSH 98Picked CHI 66%Hit
- Nov 22WSH 120 @ CHI 121Picked CHI 82%Hit
- Apr 11WSH 89 @ CHI 119Picked CHI 85%Hit
- Jan 10WSH 105 @ CHI 138Picked CHI 81%Hit
- Jan 1CHI 107 @ WSH 125Picked CHI 68%Miss
- Nov 26CHI 127 @ WSH 108Picked CHI 65%Hit
- Apr 12CHI 129 @ WSH 127Picked CHI 52%Hit
- Mar 25WSH 107 @ CHI 105Picked CHI 69%Miss