Chicago Bulls at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Rob DillinghamPoints26
- Tre JonesAssists9
- Collin SextonRebounds9
Wizards- Bilal CoulibalyPoints19
- Bub CarringtonAssists7
- Julian ReeseRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–98
- Q417.6Lachlan Olbrich defensive rebound129–98
- Q417.6Jamir Watkins misses 24-foot fade away jump shot129–98
- Q418.7Jamir Watkins offensive rebound129–98
- Q421.3Lachlan Olbrich blocks Julian Reese 's 2-foot layup129–98
- Q442.8Lachlan Olbrich makes 6-foot two point shot129–98
- Q442.8Lachlan Olbrich offensive rebound127–98
- Q444.7Leonard Miller misses free throw 2 of 2127–98
- Q444.7Leonard Miller makes free throw 1 of 2127–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:52Bilal Coulibaly makes 12-foot two point shotCHI 0 – 4 WSH · WSH 38% → 42% +4WSH 38% → 42%+4 pts
- Q110:12Bilal Coulibaly makes 16-foot pullup jump shotCHI 2 – 6 WSH · WSH 38% → 42% +4WSH 38% → 42%+4 pts
- Q19:12Patrick Williams makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)CHI 5 – 6 WSH · CHI 58% → 64% +6CHI 58% → 64%+6 pts
- Q18:31Isaac Okoro makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)CHI 8 – 6 WSH · CHI 64% → 70% +6CHI 64% → 70%+6 pts
- Q17:31Guerschon Yabusele makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaac Okoro assists)CHI 13 – 9 WSH · CHI 68% → 73% +6CHI 68% → 73%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -5.5
- ML CHI -225 / WSH +185
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- CHI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −16.1 pts
- CHI: Elo 50.3%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- CHI -197
- WSH +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 127.5 – 122.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 249.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1343 | 1256 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −48 | −10 | CHI: Missing Anfernee Simons −6, Zach Collins −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · WSH: Missing Tristan Vukcevic −8, Jaden Hardy −2 (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHI +2 Elo | CHI 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 54.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30116.1 | Points scored | 113.125th of 30 |
| 28th of 30121.6 | Points allowed | 124.629th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−5.4 | Margin | −11.630th of 30 |
| 24th of 30110.9 | Offense rating | 109.028th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.5 | Defense rating | 120.129th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.7 | Pace | 103.45th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 1–927th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3011–27 | Road vs home | 11–2728th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 15123rd of 30 |
| 27th of 301343 | Elo rating | 125630th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−48 Elo- Anfernee Simons left wrist injury−6 Elo
- Zach Collins right toe−5 Elo
Wizards
−10 Elo- Tristan Vukcevic right knee−8 Elo
- Jaden Hardy back spasms−2 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–42 | 33–45 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–21 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 29–21 | 31–42 |
| Overs–unders | 36–42 | 45–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 6–2 WSH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Nov 22WSH 120 @ CHI 121Picked CHI 82%Hit
- Apr 11WSH 89 @ CHI 119Picked CHI 85%Hit
- Jan 10WSH 105 @ CHI 138Picked CHI 81%Hit
- Jan 1CHI 107 @ WSH 125Picked CHI 68%Miss
- Nov 26CHI 127 @ WSH 108Picked CHI 65%Hit
- Apr 12CHI 129 @ WSH 127Picked CHI 52%Hit
- Mar 25WSH 107 @ CHI 105Picked CHI 69%Miss
- Mar 16WSH 98 @ CHI 127Picked CHI 72%Hit