Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerPoints25
- Jalen JohnsonAssists6
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds11
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints31
- Donovan MitchellAssists4
- Evan MobleyRebounds19
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–122
- Q419.7Evan Mobley defensive rebound116–122
- Q421.8Jonathan Kuminga misses driving layup116–122
- Q430.1Donovan Mitchell out of bounds bad pass turnover116–122
- Q430.1Dean Wade enters the game for Donovan Mitchell116–122
- Q430.1Donovan Mitchell defensive rebound116–122
- Q430.8CJ McCollum misses running pullup jump shot116–122
- Q435.5Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound116–122
- Q438.3James Harden misses 13-foot fade away jump shot116–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:24James Harden makes 25-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)ATL 76 – 78 CLE · CLE 54% → 63% +10CLE 54% → 63%+10 pts
- Q45:44Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 26-foot three pointer (Jonathan Kuminga assists)ATL 107 – 112 CLE · ATL 10% → 20% +10ATL 10% → 20%+10 pts
- Q45:30Dyson Daniels makes 1-foot running dunk (CJ McCollum assists)ATL 109 – 112 CLE · ATL 19% → 29% +10ATL 19% → 29%+10 pts
- Q44:22Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes driving layup (Dyson Daniels assists)ATL 112 – 114 CLE · ATL 22% → 33% +11ATL 22% → 33%+11 pts
- Q42:15Jonathan Kuminga makes dunk (Dyson Daniels assists)ATL 116 – 118 CLE · ATL 15% → 29% +14ATL 15% → 29%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -4.5
- ML ATL +145 / CLE -175
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -0.5
- CLE 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 52.9%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- CLE -156
- ATL +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 116.5 – 121.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1575 | 1616 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +58 | +14 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | CLE crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +20 Elo | CLE 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 60.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.4 | Points scored | 119.64th of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.8 | Points allowed | 115.314th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.6 | Margin | +4.39th of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.2 | Offense rating | 117.15th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 112.815th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.3 | Pace | 101.614th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 30 |
| 8th of 3022–17 | Road vs home | 25–149th of 30 |
| 20th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149224th of 30 |
| 11th of 301575 | Elo rating | 16167th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–36 | 31–48 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 22–20 | 23–42 |
| Underdog | 21–16 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 39–40 | 38–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–5 CLE in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
- Nov 28CLE 123 @ ATL 130Picked CLE 68%Miss
- Nov 2ATL 109 @ CLE 117Picked CLE 68%Hit
- Jan 30ATL 115 @ CLE 137Picked CLE 82%Hit
- Nov 29CLE 101 @ ATL 117Picked CLE 68%Miss
- Nov 27ATL 135 @ CLE 124Picked CLE 76%Miss
- Mar 6CLE 101 @ ATL 112Picked CLE 61%Miss
- Jan 20CLE 116 @ ATL 95Picked CLE 70%Hit
- Dec 16ATL 119 @ CLE 127Picked CLE 62%Hit