Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- James HardenPoints20
- James HardenAssists5
- Evan MobleyRebounds6
Hawks- CJ McCollumPoints29
- Dyson DanielsAssists12
- Dyson DanielsRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–124
- Q43.8shot clock turnover102–124
- Q425.6Tony Bradley defensive rebound102–124
- Q428.5Asa Newell blocks Nae'Qwan Tomlin 's 2-foot driving layup102–124
- Q435.8Cavaliers offensive team rebound102–124
- Q436.8Zaccharie Risacher blocks Tyrese Proctor 's 5-foot driving layup102–124
- Q445.2Olivier Sarr defensive rebound102–124
- Q447.2Corey Kispert misses free throw 3 of 3102–124
- Q447.2Corey Kispert makes free throw 2 of 3102–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:07Dean Wade makes 23-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)CLE 5 – 2 ATL · CLE 25% → 31% +5CLE 25% → 31%+5 pts
- Q110:33James Harden makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotCLE 8 – 4 ATL · CLE 27% → 33% +6CLE 27% → 33%+6 pts
- Q19:05CJ McCollum makes 24-foot three pointerCLE 10 – 8 ATL · ATL 65% → 71% +6ATL 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q118.7Mouhamed Gueye makes 24-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)CLE 22 – 27 ATL · ATL 76% → 81% +5ATL 76% → 81%+5 pts
- Q23:09CJ McCollum makes 24-foot three pointer (Dyson Daniels assists)CLE 39 – 46 ATL · ATL 78% → 84% +6ATL 78% → 84%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -8.5
- ML CLE +280 / ATL -355
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -4
- ATL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 65.0%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- ATL -296
- CLE +296 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 112.5 – 121.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1623 | 1568 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −71 | +56 | CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +108 Elo | ATL 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 58.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 74.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30119.6 | Points scored | 118.46th of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.3 | Points allowed | 115.917th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+4.3 | Margin | +2.512th of 30 |
| 6th of 30117.0 | Offense rating | 114.113th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.8 | Defense rating | 111.710th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.7 | Pace | 103.36th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 5th of 3025–15 | Road vs home | 23–1714th of 30 |
| 25th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149720th of 30 |
| 7th of 301623 | Elo rating | 156811th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−71 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–48 | 43–37 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 24–42 | 22–20 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 21–17 |
| Overs–unders | 39–41 | 40–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 6–4 ATL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.
- Apr 8ATL 116 @ CLE 122Picked CLE 61%Hit
- Nov 28CLE 123 @ ATL 130Picked CLE 68%Miss
- Nov 2ATL 109 @ CLE 117Picked CLE 68%Hit
- Jan 30ATL 115 @ CLE 137Picked CLE 82%Hit
- Nov 29CLE 101 @ ATL 117Picked CLE 68%Miss
- Nov 27ATL 135 @ CLE 124Picked CLE 76%Miss
- Mar 6CLE 101 @ ATL 112Picked CLE 61%Miss
- Jan 20CLE 116 @ ATL 95Picked CLE 70%Hit