Minnesota Timberwolves at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
CLE went from 68% to 61% over 4 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, October 26 at 3:19 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints47
- LaMelo BallAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds20
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints26
- James HardenAssists9
- Evan MobleyRebounds10
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game125–124
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime125–124
- OT0.0Anthony Edwards makes 28-foot three pointer125–124
- OT3.9Peyton Watson makes free throw 2 of 2122–124
- OT3.9Peyton Watson makes free throw 1 of 2122–123
- OT3.9Rudy Gobert personal foul122–120
- OT3.9Peyton Watson defensive rebound122–120
- OT3.9Anthony Edwards misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot122–120
- OT9.2Jonathan Kuminga offensive rebound122–120
- OT9.2Timberwolves offensive team rebound122–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:30Evan Mobley makes 24-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)MIN 108 – 107 CLE · CLE 13% → 40% +27CLE 13% → 40%+27 pts
- Q410.4James Harden makes 7-foot driving floating jump shotMIN 113 – 113 CLE · CLE 4% → 51% +46CLE 4% → 51%+46 pts
- OT2:52Anthony Edwards makes 26-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)MIN 116 – 113 CLE · MIN 24% → 72% +48MIN 24% → 72%+48 pts
- OT3.9Peyton Watson makes free throw 1 of 2MIN 122 – 123 CLE · CLE <1% → 92% +92CLE <1% → 92%+92 pts
- OT0.0Anthony Edwards makes 28-foot three pointerMIN 125 – 124 CLE · MIN 0% → 100% +100MIN 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Cavaliers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -4.5
- ML MIN +145 / CLE -175
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -3.5
- CLE 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- CLE: Elo 63.0%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- CLE -156
- MIN +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 113.5 – 118.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1619 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −51 | +23 | MIN: Missing Anthony Edwards (40% to sit) −16 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +92 Elo | CLE 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 66.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 66.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.0 | Points scored | 119.54th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.6 | Points allowed | 115.415th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.4 | Margin | +4.19th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.6 | Offense rating | 117.05th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 112.915th of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.4 | Pace | 101.713th of 30 |
| 17th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 8th of 3023–18 | Road vs home | 27–149th of 30 |
| 27th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149328th of 30 |
| 4th of 301619 | Elo rating | 155110th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  MIN |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–51 | 40–60 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 27–34 | 30–48 |
| Underdog | 16–17 | 10–12 |
| Overs–unders | 45–49 | 52–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–4 CLE in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.